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Revision as of 21:40, 22 August 2012

The 2012 race to become the Republican Party nominee for President of the United States featured libertarian Congressman Ron Paul. Paul's anti-war, anti-Fed, pro-civil liberties views contrasted with the positions of the other candidates: Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich, Rick Perry, Herman Cain, Michele Bachmann and Jon Huntsman. By April 2012, all candidates except Paul and Romney had withdrawn from the race.

Delegate Selection

Table of Results

This table is an estimate of numbers of supporters for each candidate from among the delegates chosen so far for the Republican National Convention in Tampa, Florida in August 2012.

  • It assumes that the delegates chosen, whether by state convention, slate, direct election, or committee, have not switched their allegiance since the date of the state convention, slate, direct election or committee.
  • It ignores the issue of "bound" delegates altogether; some delegates may be "bound" in some sense to a candidate they do not support, or it may be that no delegates at all are bound.
State RNC Delegates, Estimate of Support Delegates TBD Total Delegates State Convention References
Paul Romney Santorum Gingrich Uncommitted State Convention To Decide Congressional District Caucus To Decide Automatic (RNC) Delegates
Iowa 23 0 0 0 5 28 16 June [1][2][3]
New Hampshire 3 7 0 0 2 12 Slate [4]
South Carolina 0 2 0 23 0 25 19 May [5]
Florida 0 50 0 0 0 50 Committee 28 April [6]
Nevada 22 6 0 0 0 28 5-6 May [7][8]
Colorado 18 16 2 0 0 36 14 April [9][10][11]
Minnesota 33 2 2 0 3 40 18-19 May [12][13][14][15]
Missouri 4 31 13 1 3 52 2 June [16][17][18]
Maine 21 2 0 0 1 24 5-6 May [19]
Arizona 29 0 0 29 12 May (disputed) [20]
Michigan 8 22 0 0 0 30 18-19 May [21][22]
Wyoming 1 22 2 0 4 29 12-14 April [23]
Washington 5 37 1 0 0 43 2 June [24]
Alaska 6 8 8 2 3 27 26-28 April [25][26][27]
Georgia 0 21 3 52 0 76 18-19 May
Idaho 0 32 0 0 0 32 21-23 June [28]
Massachusetts 17 24 0 0 0 41 19 June [29][30]
North Dakota 2 20 6 0 0 28 1 April [31]
Ohio 0 38 25 0 3 66 Slate [32]
Oklahoma 25 15 3 43 11-12 May (disputed) [33][34][35][36]
Tennessee 0 17 29 9 3 58 Slate [37]
Vermont 2 15 0 0 0 17 19 May [38][39]
Virginia 25 24 0 0 0 49 16 June [40][41]
Kansas 0 7 33 0 0 40 28 April [42]
Northern Mariana Islands 0 9 0 0 0 9 10 March [43]
US Virgin Islands 1 7 0 0 1 9 Direct Election [44]
Guam 0 9 0 0 0 9 10 March [45]
Alabama 0 12 22 13 3 50 Slate
Hawaii 3 9 5 0 3 20 22 May [46]
Mississippi 0 12 13 12 3 40 18-19 May [47]
American Samoa 0 9 0 0 0 9 13 March [48]
Puerto Rico 0 20 0 0 3 23 Slate
Illinois 0 57 12 0 0 69 8-9 June [49]
Louisiana 17 29 0 0 0 46 2 June, Deal 21 Aug [50][51]
Maryland 1 36 0 0 0 37 27-28 April [52][53]
District of Columbia 0 16 0 0 3 19 Slate [54]
Wisconsin 0 33 9 0 0 42 Slate
Connecticut 0 25 0 0 3 28 Slate
Delaware 0 17 0 0 0 17 28 April
New York 0 94 0 1 0 95 22-23 May [55]
Pennsylvania 5 39 3 3 22 72 10 June [56][57]
Rhode Island 4 15 0 0 0 19 Direct Election [58][59]
Indiana 0 46 0 0 0 46 9 June [60][61]
North Carolina 7 39 5 4 0 55 3 June
West Virginia 0 24 2 0 5 31 Direct Election
Oregon 3 18 3 1 3 28 23 June
Nebraska 2 32 0 0 1 35 14 July
Arkansas 10 26 0 0 0 36 23 June [62]
Kentucky 0 45 0 0 0 45 9 June
Texas 18 108 12 7 10 155 9 June
California 0 169 0 0 3 172 Slate
New Jersey 0 50 0 0 0 50 Direct Election
New Mexico 6 15 2 0 0 23 16 June [63]
South Dakota 0 25 0 0 3 28 Slate
Montana 0 26 0 0 0 26 16 June [64]
Utah 0 40 0 0 0 40 21 April / 26 June (Primary)
Total 267 1514 212 128 93 2214 / 2286
Percentage 12% 68% 10% 6% 4%

Delegate Count Over Time

January - March

The first delegates awarded in the 2012 race were from New Hampshire. They used the slate method, so delegates were chosen on the date of the primary, 10 January, from slates proportionally according to the primary result. Paul won 3 delegates, Romney 7 and Huntsman 2.

No more delegates were awarded for nearly two months. Each contest fought in that time was either a mere ‘beauty contest’ primary, or a caucus which was only the first stage in selecting delegates in that state.

In March, three more States held slate elections: Ohio, Tennessee, and Alabama. Puerto Rico also held a slate election, the US Virgin Islands held a direct election, and the Northern Mariana Islands, Guam and American Samoa held State Conventions on the same day as their contests. Santorum won Tennessee and Alabama. Romney won Ohio and all four territories. Also in March, Wyoming and Illinois selected some CDC delegates.

Candidate Delegate Supporters,
End of March
Number % States Won
Romney 178 57% 7
Santorum 90 29% 2
Gingrich 22 7% 0
Paul 5 2% 0
Uncommitted 16 5%

The official count in the mainstream media at this time showed much higher totals. Their counts were mostly projections based on the contest results. As the contest results in many cases bear little resemblance to the number of supporters of each candidate in the eventual delegation, Romney’s total in the mainstream counts would go backwards at times in April and May, due to his failure to achieve as many delegates from State Conventions as the projections based on the contest results.

April

Paul had not won any contests so far, explaining his strategy was to secure delegates at the State Conventions that would come later, rather than to win the ‘beauty contests’.

The first State Convention in a caucus State was North Dakota on 1 April. In North Dakota, delegates are supposedly allocated proportionally according to the results of the caucus, which would have given Paul 8 delegates, Romney 7 and Santorum 11. However, Romney ended up winning with 20 delegates, leaving Santorum with 6 and Paul 2.

Santorum suspended his campaign on 10 April after a disappointing result in Wisconsin on 3 April, a slate state that awarded 33 to Romney, 9 to Santorum and 0 to Paul. Romney picked up 16 more delegates in the DC slate election on 3 April.

On 14 April, at the Colorado State Convention, Paul secured 13 delegates to Romney’s 16, more than doubling his secured delegate total so far. It was the first sign of success of Paul’s delegate strategy. Later Paul's total increased to 18 when 5 Santorum supporters defected to Paul, leaving Paul with a majority of delegates from the state. Paul was not able to pick any of the at-large delegates from Wyoming on the same day, with 14 going to Romney.

Between 14 April and 28 April, many States elected CDC delegates. Paul’s biggest success was in Minnesota, where he secured 20 of the 24 CDC delegates, enough to secure him an overall majority in that State. He also secured 4 from Missouri and 5 from Pennsylvania, though well behind Romney with 12 and 26. Paul won 16 of 27 CDC delegates awarded in Massachusetts on 28 April, but he was unable to win any CDC delegates in Georgia, Kansas, New York, or Mississippi.

There were high hopes for the Alaska State Convention on 28 April, and although a Paul supporter was chosen as the new Chair of the Alaska State Party, only 6 Paul supporters were elected as delegates, with 8 each for Romney and Santorum. Paul picked up 4 from Rhode Island and 1 from Maryland State Conventions, but was unable to win any from the Kansas or Delaware State Conventions, the Connecticut slate election, or the Florida committee. After a poor result in Delaware, Gingrich suspended his campaign on 2 May.

Candidate Delegate Supporters,
End of April
Number % States Won
Romney 554 60% 14.5
Santorum 167 18% 3.5
Paul 81 9% 1
Gingrich 63 7% 0
Uncommitted 92 6%

May

On 6 May, Paul’s delegate strategy showed just how successful it could be. He won 21 of the 24 delegates in Maine, and 22 of the 28 delegate slots in Nevada. He had now won three states, although the majority of the delegates of Nevada are supposedly bound to vote for Romney on the first ballot at the RNC.

This momentum was carried into the State Conventions of Arizona and Oklahoma on 12 May. Both these Conventions ended in dispute, with Paul supporters claiming victories that were not recognised by the establishment Republicans. On 14 May, Ron Paul announced that he was stop actively campaigning in the States that had not yet held their contests, to focus on getting delegates elected in State conventions. The announcement may have been made as a response to the events in Arizona and Oklahoma.

There were six State Conventions on 19 May. Paul won 13 of the 16 at-large delegates in Minnesota, giving him a resounding victory with 33 of the 40 total delegates from that State. Paul won 8 in Michigan and 2 in Vermont, well behind Romney with 22 and 15. Paul was not able to win any delegates from South Carolina, and did not pick up any of the at-large delegates from Georgia or Mississippi.

Virginia elected CDC delegates on 19 May, and Paul won 17 of 33, with Romney winning 16. Paul did not get any delegates from the direct election in West Virginia on 8 May, or from the New York Committee of 23 May.

Candidate Delegate Supporters,
End of May
Number % States Won
Romney 650 55% 18.5
Santorum 183 16% 4.5
Paul 159 14% 3
Gingrich 116 10% 2
Uncommitted 65 6%

June

On 2 June, Paul won the majority of delegates from Louisiana: 27 of 46. However, majorities expected from the State Conventions in Missouri and Washington on the same day did not materialize. Paul was not able to secure any of the at-large delegates in Missouri, and won only 5 of 43 delegates from Washington. The next day at the North Carolina State Convention, Paul picked up 7 delegates to Romney's 39.

In the slate elections of California and South Dakota and the direct election in New Jersey on 5 June, Romney won a clean sweep of delegates, effectively guaranteeing that the majority of delegates to the Republican National Convention support him.

On 6 June, Ron Paul sent out an email to supporters saying that "Due to the smart planning of our campaign and the hard work and diligence of supporters like you, we stand to send nearly 200 bound delegates to the Republican National Convention in Tampa. This number shatters the predictions of the pundits and talking heads and shows the seriousness of our movement. What's more, we will send several hundred additional supporters to Tampa who, while bound to Romney, believe in our ideas of liberty, constitutional government, and a common-sense foreign policy. When it is all said and done, we will likely have as many as 500 supporters as delegates on the Convention floor. That is just over 20 percent! And while this total is not enough to win the nomination, it puts us in a tremendous position to grow our movement and shape the future of the GOP!".

Paul picked up 18 more delegates at the Texas State Convention on 9 June, though Romney won with 108. Romney won a clean sweep in the Illinois, Indiana and Kentucky State Conventions on the same day. The 12 CDC delegates of Arkansas were also elected on 9 June and 6 of them are Paul supporters. On 10 June, the 13 at-large delegates in Pennsylvania went to Romney supporters following appointment by Committee.

Popular Vote

As of 3 June, Romney leads the popular vote totals with 47.7%, followed by Santorum (22.9%), Gingrich (15.9%), and Paul (11.0%). There have been allegations of election fraud and voter fraud.

Algorithmic Vote Flipping

There is evidence that some vote counts were flipped to manipulate the results of the popular votes. The manipulation is all in favor of Romney, and mostly at the expense of Paul.

Evidence of Algorithmic Vote Flipping in GOP Primary Elections

References

  1. ↑ Ron Paul 2012 Wins Iowa & Minnesota Delegates, Demonstrating Possible Path to White House - "RP will not get less than half"
  2. ↑ Reality Check 5:32 "Those 13 slots are Ron Paul delegates"
  3. ↑ Ron Paul Wins Iowa Delegate Majority
  4. ↑ NH Delegates Names List
  5. ↑ South Carolina at The Green Papers - "Each congressional district delegate ... shall be bound during the first ballot .... However, if the candidate to which a delegate is bound falls below 30% of the vote on the first ballot, that delegate automatically is released before the second ballot"
  6. ↑ Dispute over whether delegates are to be assigned winner-takes-all or proportionally.
  7. ↑ Ron Paul wins majority of delegates from Maine GOP
  8. ↑ Breaking! The Patriots of Nevada Deliver. Ron Paul delegates Win 25 of 28 Seats to Republican National Convention!
  9. ↑ Green Papers Colorado
  10. ↑ Colorado further evidence Ron Paul will challenge Romney in Tampa - "13 unpledged delegates, including me, will vote for Ron Paul. 1 for Santorum."
  11. ↑ Seems to me like Ron Paul Won Colorado....
  12. ↑ "I'm a delegate from MN... 1 of our RNC delegates is a confirmed Dr. Paul supporter"
  13. ↑ Ron Paul Wins Minnesota Delegates by a Landslide
  14. ↑ Rep. Paul supporters elected to half of Minnesota GOP convention delegation
  15. ↑ Minnesota at The Green Papers - "No Delegate to the Republican National Convention shall be bound by party rules or by state law to cast his/her vote for a particular candidate on any ballot at the convention except that the state convention may bind the Delegates whom it elects to the National Convention of the Republican Party on the first ballot to vote for a candidate for the office of President of the United States, unless they be released by said candidate."
  16. ↑ Actually, Ron Paul Is Secretly Winning A Lot More Delegates Than You Think - "Paul took 20 of the 40 delegates awarded (in Mo)"
  17. ↑ MOGOP releases unofficial results of the Congressional District Conventions
  18. ↑ Missouri at The Green Papers - "National Convention delegates are bound on the first ballot unless released by the candidate."
  19. ↑ Maine at The Green Papers
  20. ↑ Arizona at The Green Papers - "Each delegate to the national convention shall use his best efforts at the convention for the party's presidential nominee candidate who received the greatest number of votes in the presidential preference election ... until the candidate releases the delegate ... withdraws from the race or until one convention nominating ballot"
  21. ↑ Michigan at The Green Papers - "Delegates are bound to their Presidential preference from the start of the nominating process through the end of the first ballot at the Republican National Convention. Delegates may not amend their Preference unless released from that commitment."
  22. ↑ Ron Paul Decisively Wins Minnesota and Carries Delegates in Multiple Other States
  23. ↑ Wyoming at Green Papers
  24. ↑ Ron Paul 2012 Wins Majority Of Washington Delegates To Convention, Other States Expected To Follow - "RP has locked up at least half"
  25. ↑ Alaska at The Green Papers - "After the second round of balloting ... if the Candidate to which the Delegate is pledged is the candidate receiving the fewest number of votes ..., the Delegate is no longer required to support that candidate. If a ... delegate ... pledged to a ... Presidential Candidate who is no longer a candidate for the Republican Nomination for President as of the date of the National Convention, that delegate ... shall be deemed non-pledged."
  26. ↑ Ron Paul's Alaska payback "A Paul supporter was voted in as the new GOP chairman Saturday at the state convention"
  27. ↑ Ron Paul's supporters stir up Alaska GOP convention
  28. ↑ Idaho at The Green Papers - "Delegates shall be obliged on the first ballot to vote for the candidate who nominated them. Delegates committed to a withdrawn candidate become uncommitted."
  29. ↑ Massachussets at The Green Papers - All delegates bound to Romney on 1st ballot. Reports indicate that 16 delegates support Paul, 10 support Romney, and 1 is unknown
  30. ↑ State GOP’s caucus picks leave Romney slate slighted - "Less than half of Romney’s 27 chosen delegates won"
  31. ↑ The Green Papers North Dakota Republican - "Apportionment on the first ballot shall be strictly voluntary. The delegates remain free to vote their conscience on all balloting."
  32. ↑ Ohio at The Green Papers - "These delegates are morally but not legally bound to any candidate."
  33. ↑ Oklahoma at The Green Papers - "Delegates are bound until released. If that candidate withdraws, delegates vote for any candidate of their choice."
  34. ↑ Video of Oklahoma District Convention - It is unclear who was chosen as delegates at the CDC on 14 April.
  35. ↑ Oklahoma Republicans elect delegates to national convention - "Who the 25 state convention delegates will represent will be determined later"
  36. ↑ GOP Establishment makes a mockery of the democratic process in Oklahoma - "Preliminary estimates are that Congressman Paul captured 95% of the Oklahoma delegates. This was an amazing feat and a political coup of epic proportions."
  37. ↑ At the National Convention, delegates are bound for at least 2 ballots.
  38. ↑ Vermont at The Green Papers - "Delegates ... to the Republican National Convention shall be bound in the first ballot .... Delegates ... shall be released if their candidate is not placed into nomination ... or officially withdraws."
  39. ↑ DP Comment
  40. ↑ Ron Paul backers' plan: Transform the GOP "Stearns says Paul supporters have won 15 of the 24 congressional delegate spots decided in Virginia so far."
  41. ↑ Ron Paul Wins 21 of 25 Iowa Delegates and 21 Out of Virginia!
  42. ↑ Kansas at The Green Papers
  43. ↑ Northern Mariana Islands at The Green Papers - "All of the Commonwealth's National Convention delegates attend the convention as unpledged delegates."
  44. ↑ http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/VI-R US Virgin Islands at The Green Papers - "Candidates that declare as being pledged shall ... have promised, if elected, to vote for such declared candidate for the Republican nomination for President of the United States on the first ballot."]
  45. ↑ Guam at The Green Papers "With 207 of the 215 registered Republicans in Guam present, Romney won with a unanimous show of hands. While Guam's 9 delegates are technically unpledged they are all Romney supporters."
  46. ↑ Hawaii at The Green Papers - "Delegates bound on the first ballot."
  47. ↑ http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?377449-Mississippi-Convention&p=4440883&viewfull=1#post4440883 "We did not get any of the delegates"
  48. ↑ American Samoa at The Green Papers - "Delegates are unbound."
  49. ↑ [1]
  50. ↑ Ron Paul supporters dominate Louisiana's Republican presidential caucuses - "111 of the 150 (74%) delegates and 61 of the 72(85%) alternates elected to the State Convention appear to be supporters of Ron Paul", "Paul is guaranteed at least 17 of the 46 delegates to the convention"
  51. ↑ http://www.dailypaul.com/250036/17-paul-delegates-seated-from-louisiana Deal Struck in Louisiana - 27 Paul delegates becomes 17
  52. ↑ Maryland at The Green Papers - "All 37 delegates are bound to Romney for the first 2 ballots."
  53. ↑ Email from Collins Bailey - One RP Supporter
  54. ↑ 16 delegates are BOUND, the 3 RNC delegates are NOT BOUND
  55. ↑ New York at The Green Papers
  56. ↑ Pennsylvania at The Green Papers
  57. ↑ Actually, Ron Paul Is Secretly Winning A Lot More Delegates Than You Think
  58. ↑ Rhode Island at The Green Papers
  59. ↑ Actually, Ron Paul Is Secretly Winning A Lot More Delegates Than You Think
  60. ↑ Indiana at The Green Papers
  61. ↑ [2]
  62. ↑ Ron Paul surprise in Arkansas!
  63. ↑ Inside the New Mexico state GOP convention
  64. ↑ After-Action Report – Montana GOP Convention
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