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More on Bretton Woods.
Polishing; moved one.
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The [[Dot-com bubble]] and its bust was widely foreseen despite the hype:<ref name="Thornton_Bubble">Mark Thornton. [http://www.independent.org/pdf/tir/tir_09_1_1_thornton.pdf "Who Predicted the Bubble? Who Predicted the Crash?"] (pdf), ''The Independent Review'', v. IX, n. 1, Summer 2004, ISSN 1086-1653, Copyright © 2004, pp. 5–30. Referenced 2011-12-13.</ref>
The [[Dot-com bubble]] and its bust was widely foreseen despite the hype:<ref name="Thornton_Bubble">Mark Thornton. [http://www.independent.org/pdf/tir/tir_09_1_1_thornton.pdf "Who Predicted the Bubble? Who Predicted the Crash?"] (pdf), ''The Independent Review'', v. IX, n. 1, Summer 2004, ISSN 1086-1653, Copyright © 2004, pp. 5–30. Referenced 2011-12-13.</ref>


<small>Anderson, 2000; Corrigan, 1999; Deden, 1999; Grant, 1996A, 1996B; Hülsmann, 2000; Mayer, 2000; Reisman, 1999; Sennholz, 2000; Shostak, 1999; Thornton, 2000.</small>
<small>Anderson, 2000; Corrigan, 1999; Deden, 1999; DiLorenzo, 1999; Grant, 1996A, 1996B; Hülsmann, 2000; Mayer, 2000; Reisman, 1999; Sennholz, 2000; Shostak, 1999; Thornton, 2000.</small>


* Anderson, William. 2000. "[http://mises.org/freemarket_detail.aspx?control=316 New Economy, Old Delusion.]" The Free Market, August <!-- "As things stand currently, the once-vaunted bull market is in flux. This is partly due to the government’s arrogance in believing it could attack Microsoft without harming other high-technology firms that have been the most visible in the current economic expansion.
* Anderson, William. 2000. "[http://mises.org/freemarket_detail.aspx?control=316 New Economy, Old Delusion.]" The Free Market, August <!-- "As things stand currently, the once-vaunted bull market is in flux. This is partly due to the government’s arrogance in believing it could attack Microsoft without harming other high-technology firms that have been the most visible in the current economic expansion.
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Anthony Deden. [http://www.safehaven.com/article/778/reflections-on-prosperity Reflections On Prosperity
Anthony Deden. [http://www.safehaven.com/article/778/reflections-on-prosperity Reflections On Prosperity
Dec 29, 1999 -->
Dec 29, 1999 -->
* DiLorenzo, Thomas J. 1999. "[http://mises.org/daily/297 Regulatory Sneak Attack.]" September 16 <!-- about the effects of sudden regulatory changes -->


* Grant, James. 1996A. The Trouble with Prosperity, May  <!-- Grant, in his book The Trouble with Prosperity, written in May 1996, says: "Predictably, the risks to saving are the greatest just when they appear to be the smallest. By suppressing crises, the modern financial welfare state has inadvertently promoted speculation. Never before has a boom ended except in crisis." Grant continued to warn investors about the stock-market bubble in his investment newsletter, to provide detailed explanations of the cause of the bubble, and to chronicle the relevant statistics.<ref name="Thornton_Bubble" /> - anything more about that? Can't check the book; should check out the newsletter - Grant’s Interest Rate Observer. -->
* Grant, James. 1996A. The Trouble with Prosperity, May  <!-- Grant, in his book The Trouble with Prosperity, written in May 1996, says: "Predictably, the risks to saving are the greatest just when they appear to be the smallest. By suppressing crises, the modern financial welfare state has inadvertently promoted speculation. Never before has a boom ended except in crisis." Grant continued to warn investors about the stock-market bubble in his investment newsletter, to provide detailed explanations of the cause of the bubble, and to chronicle the relevant statistics.<ref name="Thornton_Bubble" /> - anything more about that? Can't check the book; should check out the newsletter - Grant’s Interest Rate Observer. -->
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During and after the burst of the [[Dot-com bubble]], these economists predicted the 2000s housing bubble that culminated in the [[Great Recession]] from 2008 onward.
During and after the burst of the [[Dot-com bubble]], these economists predicted the 2000s housing bubble that culminated in the [[Great Recession]] from 2008 onward.


<small>Anderson, 2001, 2003, 2007; Armentano, 2004; Beale, 2009; Blumen, 2002, 2004, 2005; Corrigan, 2002; Crovelli, 2006; DeCoster, 2003; DiLorenzo, 1999; Duffy, 2005A, 2005B, 2005C, 2005D, 2006, 2007A, 2007B, 2007C, 2007D; Economics of contempt, 2008; Englund, 2004, 2005A, 2005B, 2005C, 2005D, 2006, 2007, 2008; French, 2005; Grant, 2001; Karlsson, 2004; Mayer, 2003; Murphy, 2007, 2008; North, 2002, 2005; Paul, 2000, 2002; Polleit, 2006; Ptak, 2003; Rockwell, 2008; Rogers, 2005; Schiff, Undated A, Undated B, Undated C, Undated D, 2003A, 2003B, 2003C, 2004A, 2004B, 2005A, 2005B, 2005C, 2005D, 2006A, 2006B, 2006C, 2007A, 2007B; Sennholz, 2002; Shostak, 2003, 2005; Thornton, 2004A, 2004B, 2005, 2006; Trask, 2003; Wenzel, 2004; See also Woods (2009, p. 188 for further bibliography).</small>
<small>Anderson, 2001, 2003, 2007; Armentano, 2004; Beale, 2009; Blumen, 2002, 2004, 2005; Corrigan, 2002; Crovelli, 2006; DeCoster, 2003; Duffy, 2005A, 2005B, 2005C, 2005D, 2006, 2007A, 2007B, 2007C, 2007D; Economics of contempt, 2008; Englund, 2004, 2005A, 2005B, 2005C, 2005D, 2006, 2007, 2008; French, 2005; Grant, 2001; Karlsson, 2004; Mayer, 2003; Murphy, 2007, 2008; North, 2002, 2005; Paul, 2000, 2002; Polleit, 2006; Ptak, 2003; Rockwell, 2008; Rogers, 2005; Schiff, Undated A, Undated B, Undated C, Undated D, 2003A, 2003B, 2003C, 2004A, 2004B, 2005A, 2005B, 2005C, 2005D, 2006A, 2006B, 2006C, 2007A, 2007B; Sennholz, 2002; Shostak, 2003, 2005; Thornton, 2004A, 2004B, 2005, 2006; Trask, 2003; Wenzel, 2004; See also Woods (2009, p. 188 for further bibliography).</small>


Anderson, William L. 2001. "[http://mises.org/daily/617 The Party is Over]," February 20 <!-- more of a summary of the preceding boom and a hint about a coming bust -->
Anderson, William L. 2001. "[http://mises.org/daily/617 The Party is Over]," February 20 <!-- more of a summary of the preceding boom and a hint about a coming bust -->


Anderson, William L. 2003. "[http://mises.org/daily/1265 Recovery or Boomlet?]" July 07 <!-- noting the temporary is not a recovery -->
Anderson, William L. 2003. "[http://mises.org/daily/1265 Recovery or Boomlet?]" July 07 <!-- noting the temporary recovery is not a recovery -->


Anderson, William L. 2007. "[http://mises.org/daily/2675 The Party is Over – Again]," August 30 <!-- predicts the coming stock market meltdown -->
Anderson, William L. 2007. "[http://mises.org/daily/2675 The Party is Over – Again]," August 30 <!-- predicts the coming stock market meltdown -->
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Blumen, Robert. 2005. "[http://blog.mises.org/3566/housing-bubble-are-we-there-yet/ Housing Bubble: Are We There Yet?]" May 8 <!-- documents rise of the bubble with many resources -->
Blumen, Robert. 2005. "[http://blog.mises.org/3566/housing-bubble-are-we-there-yet/ Housing Bubble: Are We There Yet?]" May 8 <!-- documents rise of the bubble with many resources -->


Corrigan, Sean. 2002. "[http://mises.org/daily/994 The Trouble with Debt]". July 01 <!-- Shows the blooming business among all the bankruptcies, notes that real estate bubble tend to pop several years after stock market bubbles, and that mortgages may fare much worse compared to stocks... along with their owners. -->
Corrigan, Sean. 2002. "[http://mises.org/daily/994 The Trouble with Debt]". July 01 <!-- Shows the blooming business among all the bankruptcies, notes that real estate bubbles tend to pop several years after stock market bubbles, and that mortgages may fare much worse compared to stocks... along with their owners. -->


Crovelli, Mark R. 2006. "[http://www.kitco.com/ind/crovelli/may312006.html Gold, Inflation, And... Austria?]" May 31 <!-- summarizes the ABCT and says commercial and residential real estate markets are poised to rupture violently -->
Crovelli, Mark R. 2006. "[http://www.kitco.com/ind/crovelli/may312006.html Gold, Inflation, And... Austria?]" May 31 <!-- summarizes the ABCT and says commercial and residential real estate markets are poised to rupture violently -->


De Coster, Karen. 2003. "[http://karendecoster.com/the-house-that-greenspan-built-irrationally-exuberant-wall-street-welfare-parasites-and-their-fed-god.html The House that Greenspan Built: Irrationally Exuberant Wall Street Welfare Parasites and Their Fed-God.]" September 12 <!-- really just a series of links to other resources -->
De Coster, Karen. 2003. "[http://karendecoster.com/the-house-that-greenspan-built-irrationally-exuberant-wall-street-welfare-parasites-and-their-fed-god.html The House that Greenspan Built: Irrationally Exuberant Wall Street Welfare Parasites and Their Fed-God.]" September 12 <!-- really just a series of links to other resources -->
DiLorenzo, Thomas J. 1999. "[http://mises.org/daily/297 Regulatory Sneak Attack.]" September 16 <!-- about the effects of sudden regulatory changes -->


Duffy, Kevin. 2005A "[http://www.lewrockwell.com/orig5/duffy2.html The Super Bowl Indicator,]" February 5 <!-- likens the boom to the dot-com bubble, hinting that the result will be the same -->
Duffy, Kevin. 2005A "[http://www.lewrockwell.com/orig5/duffy2.html The Super Bowl Indicator,]" February 5 <!-- likens the boom to the dot-com bubble, hinting that the result will be the same -->

Revision as of 23:35, 15 December 2011

This page attempts to list various predictions made by Austrian economists about important economic and other developments. UNDER CONSTRUCTION.

Important note: Austrian economists, as Austrian economists, or praxeologists, do not predict. They can predict not as formal economists, or praxeologists, but, rather, in their role as thymologists, or economic historians. In praxeology, A causes B, other things remaining the same. But, in the real world, other things cannot be relied upon to always remain constant. Therefore, predictions of the "A will necessarily lead to B" type are strictly prohibited. Instead, praxeologists, but not thymologists, must limit themselves to statements of the if-A then-B variety.[1]

The Great Depression

The Great Depression was predicted by several Austrian economists:

  • In Austria, economist Ludwig von Mises saw the problem developing in its early stages and predicted to his colleagues in 1924 that the large Austrian bank, Credit Anstalt, would eventually crash. He wrote a full analysis of Irving Fisher’s monetary views, published in 1928, where he targeted Fisher’s reliance on price indexes as a key vulnerability that would bring about the Great Depression, concluding: "because of the imperfection of the index number, these calculations would necessarily lead in time to errors of very considerable proportions."
  • F. A. Hayek published several articles in early 1929 in which he predicted the collapse of the American boom. Felix Somary, who like Mises was a student at the University of Vienna, issued several dire warnings in the late 1920s, and in America economists Benjamin Anderson and E.C. Harwood also warned that the Federal Reserve policies would cause a crisis, and like Somary, they were largely ignored.[2]

End of the Bretton Woods system

The collapse of the Bretton Woods System and the following rise of the gold price has been predicted by several Austrian economists and is covered in the following:

Dot-com bubble

The Dot-com bubble and its bust was widely foreseen despite the hype:[3]

Anderson, 2000; Corrigan, 1999; Deden, 1999; DiLorenzo, 1999; Grant, 1996A, 1996B; Hülsmann, 2000; Mayer, 2000; Reisman, 1999; Sennholz, 2000; Shostak, 1999; Thornton, 2000.

  • Grant, James. 1996A. The Trouble with Prosperity, May
  • Hülsmann, Jörg G. 2000. Schöne neue Zeichengeldwelt


Housing bubble

During and after the burst of the Dot-com bubble, these economists predicted the 2000s housing bubble that culminated in the Great Recession from 2008 onward.

Anderson, 2001, 2003, 2007; Armentano, 2004; Beale, 2009; Blumen, 2002, 2004, 2005; Corrigan, 2002; Crovelli, 2006; DeCoster, 2003; Duffy, 2005A, 2005B, 2005C, 2005D, 2006, 2007A, 2007B, 2007C, 2007D; Economics of contempt, 2008; Englund, 2004, 2005A, 2005B, 2005C, 2005D, 2006, 2007, 2008; French, 2005; Grant, 2001; Karlsson, 2004; Mayer, 2003; Murphy, 2007, 2008; North, 2002, 2005; Paul, 2000, 2002; Polleit, 2006; Ptak, 2003; Rockwell, 2008; Rogers, 2005; Schiff, Undated A, Undated B, Undated C, Undated D, 2003A, 2003B, 2003C, 2004A, 2004B, 2005A, 2005B, 2005C, 2005D, 2006A, 2006B, 2006C, 2007A, 2007B; Sennholz, 2002; Shostak, 2003, 2005; Thornton, 2004A, 2004B, 2005, 2006; Trask, 2003; Wenzel, 2004; See also Woods (2009, p. 188 for further bibliography).

Anderson, William L. 2001. "The Party is Over," February 20

Anderson, William L. 2003. "Recovery or Boomlet?" July 07

Anderson, William L. 2007. "The Party is Over – Again," August 30

Armentano, Dominick. 2004. "Memo to Federal Reserve: Increase Interest Rates Now!"

Beale, Theodore. 2009. "The Return of the Great Depression"

Blumen, Robert. 2002. "Fannie Mae Distorts Markets." Mises Daily, June 17

Blumen, Robert. 2004. "All Real Estate, All the Time". March 8

Blumen, Robert. 2005. "Housing Bubble: Are We There Yet?" May 8

Corrigan, Sean. 2002. "The Trouble with Debt". July 01

Crovelli, Mark R. 2006. "Gold, Inflation, And... Austria?" May 31

De Coster, Karen. 2003. "The House that Greenspan Built: Irrationally Exuberant Wall Street Welfare Parasites and Their Fed-God." September 12

Duffy, Kevin. 2005A "The Super Bowl Indicator," February 5

Duffy, Kevin. 2005B. "Honey, I Shrunk the Net Worth," March 3

Duffy, Kevin. 2005C. "Alan, We Have a Problem," August 2

Duffy, Kevin. 2005D. "Panic Now and Beat the Rush," September 24

Duffy, Kevin. 2006. "Are Mortgage Borrowers Rational?" June 24

Duffy, Kevin. 2007A. "It’s a Mad, Mad, Mad, Mad World," May 22

Duffy, Kevin. 2007B. "For Whom Do the Bells Toll?" Barron’s, June 18

Duffy, Kevin. 2007C. "Financial Markets on Crack," August 22

Duffy, Kevin. 2007D. "Mr. Mozilo Goes to Washington," September 15

Economics of contempt. 2008. "The Unofficial List of Pundits/Experts Who Were Wrong on the Housing Bubble." July 16

Englund, Eric. 2004. "Monetizing Envy and America’s Housing Bubble". July 19

Englund, Eric. 2005A. "Houses Are Consumer Durables, Not Investments," June 8

Englund, Eric. 2005B. "Diminishing Property Rights Will Lead to a Higher Rate of Mortgage Defaults." June 28

Englund, Eric. 2005C. "When the Housing Bubble Bursts, Will President Bush Practice Mugabenomics?" July, 19

Englund, Eric. 2005D. "When Will America's Housing Bubble Burst?" November 4

Englund, Eric. 2006. "The Federal Reserve and Housing: A Cluster of Errors?" April 22

Englund, Eric. 2007. "From Prime to Subprime, America's Home-Mortgage Meltdown Has Just Begun." September 24

Englund, Eric. 2008. "Countrywide Financial Corporation and the Failure of Mortgage Socialism." January 28

French, Doug. 2005. "Condo-mania." July 11

Grant, James. 2001. "Sometimes the Economy Needs a Setback." New York Times. September 9

Karlsson, Stefan. 2004. "America's Unsustainable Boom." November 8

Mayer, Chris. 2003. "The Housing Bubble." The Free Market. Volume 23, Number 8 August

Murphy, Robert P. 2007 "The Fed’s Role in the Housing Bubble." December 28

Murphy, Robert P. 2008. "Did the Fed, or Asian Saving, Cause the Housing Bubble?" November 19

North, Gary. 2002. "How the FED Inflated the Real Estate Bubble by Pushing Down Mortgage Rates: Report As of 2002," Reality Check, March 4

North, Gary. 2005. "Surreal Estate on the San Andreas Fault." November 25, 2005

Paul, Ron. 2000. "A Republic, If You Can Keep It" January 31

Paul, Ron, 2002. "Testimony to U.S. House of Representatives", July 16

Polleit, Thorsten. 2006. "Sowing the Seeds of the Next Crisis." April 25

Ptak, Justin. 2003. "Government Employees, Go Home!" November 12

Rockwell, Llewellyn H, Jr. 2008. The Left, the Right, and the State. Auburn, AL: The Mises Institute, 2008

Rogers, Jim. 2005. "Interview with Jim Rogers on the housing bubble." April 22


Schiff, Peter. "Peter Schiff predictions" (video) Undated A.

Schiff, Peter. "Peter Schiff Was Right" (video). Undated B.

Schiff, Peter. "Peter Schiff was right 2006-2007 - CNBC edition" (video). Undated C.

Schiff, Peter. "Peter Schiff Was Right Again " (video). Undated D.

Schiff, Peter. 2003A. Commentary, March

Schiff, Peter. 2003B. Commentary, April

Schiff, Peter. 2003C. Commentary, June

Schiff, Peter. 2004A. Commentary, May

Schiff, Peter. 2004B. Commentary, June

Schiff, Peter. 2005A. Commentary, April

Schiff, Peter. 2005B. Commentary, July

Schiff, Peter. 2005C. Commentary, August

Schiff, Peter. 2005D. Commentary, October

Schiff, Peter. 2006A. Appearance on CNBC, January (video)

Schiff, Peter. 2006B. Speech to the Money Show Conference, February (video)

Schiff, Peter. 2006C. Speech to the Western Regional Mortgage Bankers Conference in Las Vegas November (video, transcript)

Schiff, Peter. 2007A. Crash Proof: How to Profit From the Coming Economic Collapse (1st edition) New York, N.Y.: Wiley, February 2007

Schiff, Peter. 2007B. Appearance on Fox News – January 12 (video)

Sennholz, Hans F. 2002. "The Fed is Culpable." November 11

Shostak, Frank. 2003. "Housing Bubble: Myth or Reality?" March 4

Shostak, Frank. 2005 "Is There a Glut of Saving?" August 4

Thornton, Mark. 2004A. "'Bull' Market?" February 9.

Thornton, Mark. 2004B. "Housing: too good to be true." June 4

Thornton, Mark. 2005. "Is the Housing Bubble Popping?" , August

Thornton, Mark. 2006. "The Economics of Housing Bubbles.", June

Trask, H.A. Scott. 2003. "Reflation in American History." October 31

Wenzel, Robert. 2004. "Government Isn't God: FDIC Sticks Banks With Bad Loans and Sticks Borrowers With Subprime Junk."

Woods, Thomas E. Jr. 2009. Meltdown: A Free-Market Look at Why the Stock Market Collapsed, the Economy Tanked, and Government Bailouts Will Make Things Worse. Washington D.C.: Regnery Publishing [1]

Other predictions

  • The Skyscraper index shows a correlation between the construction of the world's tallest buildings and impending financial crises. While not developed by Austrian economists, it is compatible with their views about the business cycle.[4]

References

  1. ↑ 1.0 1.1 Walter Block. Austrian Thymologists Who Predicted the Housing Bubble, LRC.com, December 22, 2010. Referenced 2011-11-29.
  2. ↑ Mark Thornton. "Mises vs. Fisher on Money, Method, and Prediction: The Case of the Great Depression" (pdf), p.13-15; December 2006. Referenced 2011-12-13.
  3. ↑ Mark Thornton. "Who Predicted the Bubble? Who Predicted the Crash?" (pdf), The Independent Review, v. IX, n. 1, Summer 2004, ISSN 1086-1653, Copyright © 2004, pp. 5–30. Referenced 2011-12-13.
  4. ↑ Mark Thornton. "Skyscrapers and Business Cycles", Mises Daily, August 23, 2008. Originally appeared in the Quarterly Journal of Austrian Economics vol. 8, no. 1 (Spring 2005) - PDF. There is also an MP3 audio file read by the author. Referenced 2011-12-13.

Links

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