Austrian predictions: Difference between revisions
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Shostak, Frank. 2005 "[http://mises.org/daily/1882 Is There a Glut of Saving?]" August 4 <!-- a glut of saving didn't cause the bubble, the Fed did - no predictions --> | Shostak, Frank. 2005 "[http://mises.org/daily/1882 Is There a Glut of Saving?]" August 4 <!-- a glut of saving didn't cause the bubble, the Fed did - no predictions --> | ||
Thornton, Mark. | Thornton, Mark. 2004A. "[http://www.lewrockwell.com/thornton/thornton11.html 'Bull' Market?]" February 9. <!-- basic analysis of a large housing bubble --> | ||
Thornton, Mark. | Thornton, Mark. 2004B. "[http://mises.org/daily/1533 Housing: too good to be true.]" June 4 <!-- "It has now been three years since the U.S. stock market crash. Greenspan has indicated that interest rates could soon reverse their course, while longer-term interest rates have already moved higher. Higher interest rates should trigger a reversal in the housing market and expose the fallacies of the new paradigm, including how the housing boom has helped cover up increases in price inflation. Unfortunately, this exposure will hurt homeowners and the larger problem could hit the American taxpayer, who could be forced to bailout the banks and government-sponsored mortgage guarantors who have encouraged irresponsible lending practices." --> | ||
Thornton, Mark. | Thornton, Mark. 2005. "[http://www.lewrockwell.com/thornton/thornton27.html Is the Housing Bubble Popping?]" , August <!-- "the housing bubble might be coming to an end" --> | ||
Thornton, Mark. 2006. June "[http://mises.org/journals/scholar/Thornton13.pdf The Economics of Housing Bubbles.]" America’s Housing Crisis: A Case of Government Failure, Benjamin Powell and Randall Holcombe, eds., Transaction Publishers <!-- an extensive history of the housing bubble; predictions p. 27, 29, 31: construction industry, unemployment, foreclosures, bankruptcies, bailouts of banks and GSEs, a long recession --> | |||
Trask, H.A. Scott. 2003. "[http://mises.org/daily/1363 Reflation in American History.]" October 31 <!-- analyzes some bubbles in history and remarks the next one should be similar --> | |||
Woods, Thomas E. Jr. 2009. Meltdown: A Free-Market Look at Why the Stock Market Collapsed, the Economy Tanked, and Government Bailouts Will Make Things Worse. Washington D.C.: Regnery Publishing <!-- --> | Wenzel, Robert. 2008. "[http://www.economicpolicyjournal.com/2008/07/government-isnt-god-fdic-sticks-banks.html Government Isn't God: FDIC Sticks Banks With Bad Loans and Sticks Borrowers With Subprime Junk.]" July 21 <!-- (refers to an [http://web.archive.org/web/20040816043836/www.economicbriefing.com/sabat/fedbubble.html archived] 2004 article) predicts people walking away from their houses; "when this growth in money supply begins to slow in earnest to under 5%, as the Fed slowly begins to raise rates, that you will see the real estate bubble begin to burst and then cascade downward." --> | ||
Woods, Thomas E. Jr. 2009. Meltdown: A Free-Market Look at Why the Stock Market Collapsed, the Economy Tanked, and Government Bailouts Will Make Things Worse. Washington D.C.: Regnery Publishing <!-- reported to contain some examples of predictions --> | |||
<ref name="Block_Thymologists" /> | <ref name="Block_Thymologists" /> | ||
Revision as of 15:31, 8 December 2011
This page attempts to list various predictions made by Austrian economists about important economic and other developments. UNDER CONSTRUCTION.
Important note: Austrian economists, as Austrian economists, or praxeologists, do not predict. They can predict not as formal economists, or praxeologists, but, rather, in their role as thymologists, or economic historians. In praxeology, A causes B, other things remaining the same. But, in the real world, other things cannot be relied upon to always remain constant. Therefore, predictions of the "A will necessarily lead to B" type are strictly prohibited. Instead, praxeologists, but not thymologists, must limit themselves to statements of the if-A then-B variety.[1]
The Great Depression
The Great Depression was predicted by several Austrian economists...
Dot-com bubble
Did anybody predict the Dot-com bubble?
Housing bubble
During and after the burst of the Dot-com bubble, these economists predicted the 2000s housing bubble that culminated in the Great Recession from 2008 onward.
Anderson, 2001, 2003, 2007; Beale, various dates; Blumen, 2002, 2005; Corrigan, tba; Crovelli, 2006; DeCoster, 2003; DiLorenzo, 1999; Duffy, 2005A, 2005B, 2005C, 2005D, 2006, 2007A, 2007B, 2007C, 2007D; Economics of contempt, 2008; Englund, 2004, 2005A, 2005B, 2005C, 2005D, 2006, 2007, 2008; French, 2005; Grant, 2001; Karlsson, 2004; Mayer, 2003; Murphy, 2007, 2008; North, 2002, 2005; Paul, various dates, 2000, 2002; Polleit, 2006; Ptak, 2003; Rockwell, 2008, 462; Rogers, 2005; Rothbard, tba; Schiff, Undated A, Undated B, Undated C, Undated D, 2003A, 2003B, 2003C, 2004A, 2004B, 2005A, 2005B, 2005C, 2005D, 2006A, 2006B, 2006C, 2006D, 2007A, 2007B; Sennholz, 2002; Shostak, 2003, 2005; Thornton, 2004, 2009, Undated; Trask, 2003; Wenzel, 2004; See also Woods (2009, p. 188 for further bibliography).
Anderson, William L. 2001. "The Party is Over," February 20
Anderson, William L. 2003. "Recovery or Boomlet?" July 07
Anderson, William L. 2007. "The Party is Over – Again," August 30
Armentano, Dominick. 2004. "Memo to Federal Reserve: Increase Interest Rates Now!"
Beale, Theodore. 2009. ""The Return of the Great Depression"
Blumen, Robert. 2002. "Fannie Mae Distorts Markets." Mises Daily, June 17
Blumen, Robert. 2005. "Housing Bubble: Are We There Yet?" May 8
Blumen, Robert. 2004. "All Real Estate, All the Time". March 8
Crovelli, Mark R. 2006. "Gold, Inflation, And... Austria?" May 31
De Coster, Karen. 2003. "The House that Greenspan Built: Irrationally Exuberant Wall Street Welfare Parasites and Their Fed-God." September 12
DiLorenzo, Thomas J. 1999. "Regulatory Sneak Attack." September 16
Duffy, Kevin. 2005A "The Super Bowl Indicator," February 5
Duffy, Kevin. 2005B. "Honey, I Shrunk the Net Worth," March 3
Duffy, Kevin. 2005C. "Alan, We Have a Problem," August 2
Duffy, Kevin. 2005D. "Panic Now and Beat the Rush," September 24
Duffy, Kevin. 2006. "Are Mortgage Borrowers Rational?" June 24
Duffy, Kevin. 2007A. "It’s a Mad, Mad, Mad, Mad World," May 22
Duffy, Kevin. 2007B. "For Whom Do the Bells Toll?" Barron’s, June 18
Duffy, Kevin. 2007C. "Financial Markets on Crack," August 22
Duffy, Kevin. 2007D. "Mr. Mozilo Goes to Washington," September 15
Economics of contempt. 2008. "The Unofficial List of Pundits/Experts Who Were Wrong on the Housing Bubble." July 16
Englund, Eric. 2004. "Monetizing Envy and America’s Housing Bubble". July 19
Englund, Eric. 2005A. "Houses Are Consumer Durables, Not Investments," June 8
Englund, Eric. 2005B. "Diminishing Property Rights Will Lead to a Higher Rate of Mortgage Defaults." June 28
Englund, Eric. 2005C. "When the Housing Bubble Bursts, Will President Bush Practice Mugabenomics?" July, 19
Englund, Eric. 2005D. "When Will America's Housing Bubble Burst?" November 4
Englund, Eric. 2006. "The Federal Reserve and Housing: A Cluster of Errors?" April 22
Englund, Eric. 2007. "From Prime to Subprime, America's Home-Mortgage Meltdown Has Just Begun." September 24
Englund, Eric. 2008. "Countrywide Financial Corporation and the Failure of Mortgage Socialism." January 28
French, Doug. 2005. "Condo-mania." July 11
Grant, James. 2001. "Sometimes the Economy Needs a Setback." New York Times. September 9
Karlsson, Stefan. 2004. "America's Unsustainable Boom." November 8
Mayer, Chris. 2003. "The Housing Bubble." The Free Market. Volume 23, Number 8 August
Murphy, Robert P. 2007 "The Fed’s Role in the Housing Bubble." December 28
Murphy, Robert P. 2008. "Did the Fed, or Asian Saving, Cause the Housing Bubble?" November 19
North, Gary. 2002. "How the FED Inflated the Real Estate Bubble by Pushing Down Mortgage Rates: Report As of 2002," Reality Check, March 4
North, Gary. 2005. "Surreal Estate on the San Andreas Fault." November 25, 2005
Paul, Ron, 2002. "Testimony to U.S. House of Representatives", July 16; text of speech in Woods (2009, 16–17):
- "Ironically, by transferring the risk of a widespread mortgage default, the government increases the likelihood of a painful crash in the housing market. This is because the special privileges granted to Fannie and Freddie have distorted the housing market by allowing them to attract capital they could not attract under pure market conditions. As a result, capital is diverted from its most productive use into housing. This reduces the efficacy of the entire market and thus reduces the standard of living of all Americans.
- "However, despite the long-term damage to the economy inflicted by the government's interference in the housing market, the government's policy of diverting capital to other uses creates a short-term boom in housing. Like all artificially created bubbles, the boom in housing prices cannot last forever. When housing prices fall, homeowners will experience difficulty as their equity is wiped out. Furthermore, the holders of the mortgage debt will also have a loss. These losses will be greater than they would have otherwise been had government policy not actively encouraged overinvestment in housing."
Paul, Ron. 2000. "A Republic, If You Can Keep It" January 31
Polleit, Thorsten. 2006. "Sowing the Seeds of the Next Crisis." April 25
Ptak, Justin. 2003. "Government Employees, Go Home!" November 12
Rockwell, Llewellyn H, Jr. 2008. The Left, the Right, and the State. Auburn, AL: The Mises Institute, 2008
Rogers, Jim. 2005. "Interview with Jim Rogers on the housing bubble." April 22
Rothbard, Murray N. tba
Schiff, Peter. "Peter Schiff predictions" (video) Undated A.
Schiff, Peter. "Peter Schiff Was Right" (video). Undated B.
Schiff, Peter. "Peter Schiff was right 2006-2007 - CNBC edition" (video). Undated C.
Schiff, Peter. "Peter Schiff Was Right Again " (video). Undated D.
Schiff, Peter. 2003A. Commentary, March
Schiff, Peter. 2003B. Commentary, April
Schiff, Peter. 2003C. Commentary, June
Schiff, Peter. 2004A. Commentary, May
Schiff, Peter. 2004B. Commentary, June
Schiff, Peter. 2005A. Commentary, April
Schiff, Peter. 2005B. Commentary, July
Schiff, Peter. 2005C. Commentary, August
Schiff, Peter. 2005D. Commentary, October
Schiff, Peter. 2006A. Appearance on CNBC, January (video)
Schiff, Peter. 2006B. Speech to the Money Show Conference, February (video)
Schiff, Peter. 2006C. Speech to the Western Regional Mortgage Bankers Conference in Las Vegas November (video, transcript)
Schiff, Peter. 2007A. Crash Proof: How to Profit From the Coming Economic Collapse (1st edition) New York, N.Y.: Wiley, February 2007
Schiff, Peter. 2007B. Appearance on Fox News – January 12 (video)
Sennholz, Hans F. 2002. "The Fed is Culpable." November 11
Shostak, Frank. 2003. "Housing Bubble: Myth or Reality?" March 4
Shostak, Frank. 2005 "Is There a Glut of Saving?" August 4
Thornton, Mark. 2004A. "'Bull' Market?" February 9.
Thornton, Mark. 2004B. "Housing: too good to be true." June 4
Thornton, Mark. 2005. "Is the Housing Bubble Popping?" , August
Thornton, Mark. 2006. June "The Economics of Housing Bubbles." America’s Housing Crisis: A Case of Government Failure, Benjamin Powell and Randall Holcombe, eds., Transaction Publishers
Trask, H.A. Scott. 2003. "Reflation in American History." October 31
Wenzel, Robert. 2008. "Government Isn't God: FDIC Sticks Banks With Bad Loans and Sticks Borrowers With Subprime Junk." July 21
Woods, Thomas E. Jr. 2009. Meltdown: A Free-Market Look at Why the Stock Market Collapsed, the Economy Tanked, and Government Bailouts Will Make Things Worse. Washington D.C.: Regnery Publishing
References
- ↑ 1.0 1.1 Walter Block. Austrian Thymologists Who Predicted the Housing Bubble, LRC.com, December 22, 2010. Referenced 2011-11-29.