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Republican Party presidential primaries, 2012: Difference between revisions

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| <ref>[http://www.slate.com/blogs/weigel/2012/04/23/ron_paul_wins_minnesota_delegates_by_a_landslide.html Ron Paul Wins Minnesota Delegates by a Landslide]</ref><ref>[http://www.piercecountyherald.com/event/article/id/44707/ Rep. Paul supporters elected to half of Minnesota GOP convention delegation]</ref>
| <ref>[http://www.slate.com/blogs/weigel/2012/04/23/ron_paul_wins_minnesota_delegates_by_a_landslide.html Ron Paul Wins Minnesota Delegates by a Landslide]</ref><ref>[http://www.piercecountyherald.com/event/article/id/44707/ Rep. Paul supporters elected to half of Minnesota GOP convention delegation]</ref>


Revision as of 20:34, 2 May 2012

The 2012 race to become the Republic Party nominee for President of the United States in 2012 featured libertarian Congressman Ron Paul. Paul's anti-war, anti-Fed, pro-civil liberties views contrasted with the positions of the other candidates: Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich, Rick Perry, Herman Cain, Michele Bachmann and Jon Huntsman. By April 2012, all candidates except Paul and Romney had withdrawn from the race.

Popular Vote

As of 2 May, Romney leads with 39.7%, followed by Santorum (27.8%), Gingrich (19.9%), and Paul (10.3%). There have been allegations of election fraud and voter fraud.

Delegate Selection

The mainstream media are not projecting many delegates for Ron Paul at the Republic National Convention. For example, CNN projected 9 for Ron Paul from Minnesota, but he has won 20 of the first 24 delegates assigned in that state. Paul's strategy and superior grassroots organization enable him to pick up delegates out of proportion to the popular vote. For example, in Louisiana he won 6% of the popular vote, but has secured at least 17 of the 46 delegates from that state.

Table of Results/Projections

There are reports from the ground that claim that Ron Paul has won, or is likely to win, considerably more delegates than the projections indicate. This table is an attempt to bring together these reports to give a more accurate picture of how many delegates Paul is winning or likely to win.

State RNC Delegates To Be Assigned Later Total Delegates State Convention Date Reported Quotes
Paul Romney Santorum Gingrich Uncommitted State Convention To Decide Congressional District Caucus To Decide Automatic (RNC) Delegates
Minnesota 20 1 2 0 1 13 0 3 40 18-19 May [1][2]
Iowa 13 0 0 0 0 12 3 28 6 June "RP will not get less than half" [3][4]
Maine 24 0 0 0 0 15 6 3 24 4 May "RP could well sweep all 24" [5]
Washington >21 10 30 3 43 31 May "RP has locked up at least half"[6]
North Dakota 2 20 6 0 0 0 0 0 28 [7]
Missouri 4 12 7 1 1 24 0 3 52 1,2 June "Paul took 20 of the 40 delegates awarded"[8][9]
Alaska 6 8 8 2 3 0 0 0 27 "A Paul supporter was voted in as the new GOP chairman Saturday at the state convention"[10][11]
Nevada 28 "RP expected to win a big chunk of the RNC delegates at the state conventions later this spring"[12]
Colorado 0 (+13) 13 6 (+1) 0 14 0 0 3 36 "13 unpledged delegates, including me, will vote for Ron Paul. 1 for Santorum." [13]
Louisiana 17 0 3 0 1 5 0 3 26(c)+20(p) 2 June "Paul is guaranteed at least 17 of the 46 delegates to the convention"[14]
Pennsylvania 5 72 [15]
Rhode Island 4 19 [16]
Massachussets 16 (*) 11 0 0 0 11 (**) 0 3 41 June "Less than half of Romney’s 27 chosen delegates won"[17]

* All delegates bound to Romney on 1st ballot
** Selected by MA Republican State Committee

Note: pink denotes a relatively high level of confidence in the projection, but even these are technically "unpledged" in many cases.

References

  1. ↑ Ron Paul Wins Minnesota Delegates by a Landslide
  2. ↑ Rep. Paul supporters elected to half of Minnesota GOP convention delegation
  3. ↑ Ron Paul 2012 Wins Iowa & Minnesota Delegates, Demonstrating Possible Path to White House
  4. ↑ Reality Check 5:32 "Those 13 slots are Ron Paul delegates"
  5. ↑ Maine caucuses provide a window into Ron Paul delegate strategy
  6. ↑ Ron Paul 2012 Wins Majority Of Washington Delegates To Convention, Other States Expected To Follow
  7. ↑ The Green Papers North Dakota Republican
  8. ↑ Actually, Ron Paul Is Secretly Winning A Lot More Delegates Than You Think
  9. ↑ MOGOP releases unofficial results of the Congressional District Conventions
  10. ↑ Ron Paul's Alaska payback
  11. ↑ Ron Paul's supporters stir up Alaska GOP convention
  12. ↑ Actually, Ron Paul Is Secretly Winning A Lot More Delegates Than You Think
  13. ↑ Colorado further evidence Ron Paul will challenge Romney in Tampa
  14. ↑ Ron Paul supporters dominate Louisiana's Republican presidential caucuses
  15. ↑ Actually, Ron Paul Is Secretly Winning A Lot More Delegates Than You Think
  16. ↑ Actually, Ron Paul Is Secretly Winning A Lot More Delegates Than You Think
  17. ↑ State GOP’s caucus picks leave Romney slate slighted
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