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During and after the burst of the [[Dot-com bubble]], these economists predicted the 2000s housing bubble that culminated in the [[Great Recession]] from 2008 onward.
During and after the burst of the [[Dot-com bubble]], these economists predicted the 2000s housing bubble that culminated in the [[Great Recession]] from 2008 onward.


<small>Anderson, 2001, 2003, 2007; Beale, various dates; Blumen, 2002, 2005; Corrigan, tba; Crovelli, 2006; DeCoster, 2003; DiLorenzo, 1999; Duffy, 2005A, 2005B, 2005C, 2005D, 2006, 2007A, 2007B, 2007C, 2007D; Economics of contempt, 2008; Englund, 2004, 2005A, 2005B, 2005C, 2005D, 2006, 2007, 2008; French, 2005; Grant, 2001; Karlsson, 2004; Mayer, 2003; Murphy, 2007, 2008; North, 2002, 2005; Paul, various dates, 2000, 2002; Polleit, 2006; Ptak, 2003; Rockwell, 2008, 462; Rogers, 2005; Rothbard, tba; Schiff, Undated A, Undated B, Undated C, Undated D, 2003A, 2003B, 2003C, 2004A, 2004B, 2005A, 2005B, 2005C, 2005D, 2006A, 2006B, 2006C, 2006D, 2007A, 2007B; Sennholz, 2002; Shostak, 2003, 2005; Thornton, 2004, 2009, Undated; Trask, 2003; Wenzel, 2004; See also Woods (2009, p. 188 for further bibliography).</small>
<small>Anderson, 2001, 2003, 2007; Armentano, 2004; Beale, 2009; Blumen, 2002, 2004, 2005; Corrigan, 2002; Crovelli, 2006; DeCoster, 2003; DiLorenzo, 1999; Duffy, 2005A, 2005B, 2005C, 2005D, 2006, 2007A, 2007B, 2007C, 2007D; Economics of contempt, 2008; Englund, 2004, 2005A, 2005B, 2005C, 2005D, 2006, 2007, 2008; French, 2005; Grant, 2001; Karlsson, 2004; Mayer, 2003; Murphy, 2007, 2008; North, 2002, 2005; Paul, 2000, 2002; Polleit, 2006; Ptak, 2003; Rockwell, 2008; Rogers, 2005; Schiff, Undated A, Undated B, Undated C, Undated D, 2003A, 2003B, 2003C, 2004A, 2004B, 2005A, 2005B, 2005C, 2005D, 2006A, 2006B, 2006C, 2007A, 2007B; Sennholz, 2002; Shostak, 2003, 2005; Thornton, 2004A, 2004B, 2005, 2006; Trask, 2003; Wenzel, 2004; See also Woods (2009, p. 188 for further bibliography).</small>


Anderson, William L. 2001. "[http://mises.org/daily/617 The Party is Over]," February 20 <!-- more of a summary of the preceding boom and a hint about a coming bust -->
Anderson, William L. 2001. "[http://mises.org/daily/617 The Party is Over]," February 20 <!-- more of a summary of the preceding boom and a hint about a coming bust -->
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Armentano, Dominick. 2004. "[http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=2510 Memo to Federal Reserve: Increase Interest Rates Now!]" <!-- notes the rise of the housing bubble and foretells a bust -->
Armentano, Dominick. 2004. "[http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=2510 Memo to Federal Reserve: Increase Interest Rates Now!]" <!-- notes the rise of the housing bubble and foretells a bust -->


Beale, Theodore. 2009. "[http://superstore.wnd.com/books/WND-Books/The-Return-of-the-Great-Depression-Autographed-Hardcover "The Return of the Great Depression"] <!-- according to the book description, the then unfolding recession will be much larger than expected -->
Beale, Theodore. 2009. "[http://superstore.wnd.com/books/WND-Books/The-Return-of-the-Great-Depression-Autographed-Hardcover The Return of the Great Depression]" <!-- according to the book description, the then unfolding recession will be much larger than expected -->


Blumen, Robert. 2002. "[http://mises.org/daily/986 Fannie Mae Distorts Markets.]" Mises Daily, June 17 <!-- spells out the effect of Fannie and Freddie on the housing market, shows the systemic risk and foresees the coming bailout -->
Blumen, Robert. 2002. "[http://mises.org/daily/986 Fannie Mae Distorts Markets.]" Mises Daily, June 17 <!-- spells out the effect of Fannie and Freddie on the housing market, shows the systemic risk and foresees the coming bailout -->
Blumen, Robert. 2004. "[http://www.lewrockwell.com/orig3/blumen4.html All Real Estate, All the Time]". March 8 <!-- housing as the unstable driver of economic activity in the US -->


Blumen, Robert. 2005. "[http://blog.mises.org/3566/housing-bubble-are-we-there-yet/ Housing Bubble: Are We There Yet?]" May 8 <!-- documents rise of the bubble with many resources -->
Blumen, Robert. 2005. "[http://blog.mises.org/3566/housing-bubble-are-we-there-yet/ Housing Bubble: Are We There Yet?]" May 8 <!-- documents rise of the bubble with many resources -->
Blumen, Robert. 2004. "[http://www.lewrockwell.com/orig3/blumen4.html All Real Estate, All the Time]". March 8 <!-- housing as the unstable driver of economic activity in the US -->


Corrigan, Sean. 2002. "[http://mises.org/daily/994 The Trouble with Debt]". July 01 <!-- Shows the blooming business among all the bankruptcies, notes that real estate bubble tend to pop several years after stock market bubbles, and that mortgages may fare much worse compared to stocks... along with their owners. -->
Corrigan, Sean. 2002. "[http://mises.org/daily/994 The Trouble with Debt]". July 01 <!-- Shows the blooming business among all the bankruptcies, notes that real estate bubble tend to pop several years after stock market bubbles, and that mortgages may fare much worse compared to stocks... along with their owners. -->
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North, Gary. 2005. "[http://www.lewrockwell.com/north/north416.html Surreal Estate on the San Andreas Fault.]" November 25, 2005 <!-- about housing bubbles, notes the danger of ARMs -->
North, Gary. 2005. "[http://www.lewrockwell.com/north/north416.html Surreal Estate on the San Andreas Fault.]" November 25, 2005 <!-- about housing bubbles, notes the danger of ARMs -->


Paul, Ron, 2002. [http://paul.house.gov/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=323&Itemid=60 "Testimony to U.S. House of Representatives"], July 16; text of speech in Woods (2009, 16–17):
Paul, Ron. 2000. "[http://ronpaulforcongress.com/html/republic.html A Republic, If You Can Keep It]" January 31 <!-- "If one cares about providing the maximum and best housing for the maximum number of people, one must consider a free-market approach in association with a sound non-depreciating currency. We have been operating a public housing program directly opposite to this, and along with steady inflation and government promotion of housing since the 1960s, the housing market has been grossly distorted. We can soon expect a major downward correction in the housing industry, prompted by rising interest rates." -->


Paul, Ron, 2002. [http://paul.house.gov/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=323&Itemid=60 "Testimony to U.S. House of Representatives"], July 16 <!--
:"Ironically, by transferring the risk of a widespread mortgage default, the government increases the likelihood of a painful crash in the housing market. This is because the special privileges granted to Fannie and Freddie have distorted the housing market by allowing them to attract capital they could not attract under pure market conditions. As a result, capital is diverted from its most productive use into housing. This reduces the efficacy of the entire market and thus reduces the standard of living of all Americans.
:"Ironically, by transferring the risk of a widespread mortgage default, the government increases the likelihood of a painful crash in the housing market. This is because the special privileges granted to Fannie and Freddie have distorted the housing market by allowing them to attract capital they could not attract under pure market conditions. As a result, capital is diverted from its most productive use into housing. This reduces the efficacy of the entire market and thus reduces the standard of living of all Americans.


:"However, despite the long-term damage to the economy inflicted by the government's interference in the housing market, the government's policy of diverting capital to other uses creates a short-term boom in housing. Like all artificially created bubbles, the boom in housing prices cannot last forever. When housing prices fall, homeowners will experience difficulty as their equity is wiped out. Furthermore, the holders of the mortgage debt will also have a loss. These losses will be greater than they would have otherwise been had government policy not actively encouraged overinvestment in housing." <!-- -->
:"However, despite the long-term damage to the economy inflicted by the government's interference in the housing market, the government's policy of diverting capital to other uses creates a short-term boom in housing. Like all artificially created bubbles, the boom in housing prices cannot last forever. When housing prices fall, homeowners will experience difficulty as their equity is wiped out. Furthermore, the holders of the mortgage debt will also have a loss. These losses will be greater than they would have otherwise been had government policy not actively encouraged overinvestment in housing." -->
 
Paul, Ron. 2000. "[http://ronpaulforcongress.com/html/republic.html A Republic, If You Can Keep It]" January 31 <!-- "If one cares about providing the maximum and best housing for the maximum number of people, one must consider a free-market approach in association with a sound non-depreciating currency. We have been operating a public housing program directly opposite to this, and along with steady inflation and government promotion of housing since the 1960s, the housing market has been grossly distorted. We can soon expect a major downward correction in the housing industry, prompted by rising interest rates." -->


Polleit, Thorsten. 2006. "[http://mises.org/daily/2111 Sowing the Seeds of the Next Crisis.]" April 25 <!-- crises follow expansions of money supply -->
Polleit, Thorsten. 2006. "[http://mises.org/daily/2111 Sowing the Seeds of the Next Crisis.]" April 25 <!-- crises follow expansions of money supply -->
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Rogers, Jim. 2005. "[http://thehousingbubble.blogspot.com/2005/04/jim-rogers-on-housing-bubble.html Interview with Jim Rogers on the housing bubble.]" April 22 <!-- A short Q&A on some random blog, basically says Jim Rogers says there is a bubble. There should be something better out there! -->
Rogers, Jim. 2005. "[http://thehousingbubble.blogspot.com/2005/04/jim-rogers-on-housing-bubble.html Interview with Jim Rogers on the housing bubble.]" April 22 <!-- A short Q&A on some random blog, basically says Jim Rogers says there is a bubble. There should be something better out there! -->


Rothbard, Murray N. tba <!-- ??? -->
<!-- Rothbard, Murray N. tba - ??? -->


Schiff, Peter. "[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9h2x7R8pxUs Peter Schiff predictions]" (video) Undated A. <!-- a 2009 interview about past predictions -->
Schiff, Peter. "[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9h2x7R8pxUs Peter Schiff predictions]" (video) Undated A. <!-- a 2009 interview about past predictions -->
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Thornton, Mark. 2005. "[http://www.lewrockwell.com/thornton/thornton27.html Is the Housing Bubble Popping?]" , August <!-- "the housing bubble might be coming to an end" -->
Thornton, Mark. 2005. "[http://www.lewrockwell.com/thornton/thornton27.html Is the Housing Bubble Popping?]" , August <!-- "the housing bubble might be coming to an end" -->


Thornton, Mark. 2006. June "[http://mises.org/journals/scholar/Thornton13.pdf The Economics of Housing Bubbles.]" America’s Housing Crisis: A Case of Government Failure, Benjamin Powell and Randall Holcombe, eds., Transaction Publishers <!-- an extensive history of the housing bubble; predictions p. 27, 29, 31: construction industry, unemployment, foreclosures, bankruptcies, bailouts of banks and GSEs, a long recession -->
Thornton, Mark. 2006. "[http://mises.org/journals/scholar/Thornton13.pdf The Economics of Housing Bubbles.]", June  <!-- America’s Housing Crisis: A Case of Government Failure, Benjamin Powell and Randall Holcombe, eds., Transaction Publishers - an extensive history of the housing bubble; predictions p. 27, 29, 31: construction industry, unemployment, foreclosures, bankruptcies, bailouts of banks and GSEs, a long recession -->


Trask, H.A. Scott. 2003. "[http://mises.org/daily/1363 Reflation in American History.]" October 31 <!-- analyzes some bubbles in history and remarks the next one should be similar -->
Trask, H.A. Scott. 2003. "[http://mises.org/daily/1363 Reflation in American History.]" October 31 <!-- analyzes some bubbles in history and remarks the next one should be similar -->


Wenzel, Robert. 2008. "[http://www.economicpolicyjournal.com/2008/07/government-isnt-god-fdic-sticks-banks.html Government Isn't God: FDIC Sticks Banks With Bad Loans and Sticks Borrowers With Subprime Junk.]" July 21 <!-- (refers to an [http://web.archive.org/web/20040816043836/www.economicbriefing.com/sabat/fedbubble.html archived] 2004 article) predicts people walking away from their houses; "when this growth in money supply begins to slow in earnest to under 5%, as the Fed slowly begins to raise rates, that you will see the real estate bubble begin to burst and then cascade downward." -->
Wenzel, Robert. 2004. "[http://www.economicpolicyjournal.com/2008/07/government-isnt-god-fdic-sticks-banks.html Government Isn't God: FDIC Sticks Banks With Bad Loans and Sticks Borrowers With Subprime Junk.]" <!-- (2008 article refers to another [http://web.archive.org/web/20040816043836/www.economicbriefing.com/sabat/fedbubble.html archived] 2004 article) predicts people walking away from their houses; "when this growth in money supply begins to slow in earnest to under 5%, as the Fed slowly begins to raise rates, that you will see the real estate bubble begin to burst and then cascade downward." -->


Woods, Thomas E. Jr. 2009. Meltdown: A Free-Market Look at Why the Stock Market Collapsed, the Economy Tanked, and Government Bailouts Will Make Things Worse. Washington D.C.: Regnery Publishing <!-- reported to contain some examples of predictions --><ref name="Block_Thymologists" />
Woods, Thomas E. Jr. 2009. Meltdown: A Free-Market Look at Why the Stock Market Collapsed, the Economy Tanked, and Government Bailouts Will Make Things Worse. Washington D.C.: Regnery Publishing <!-- reported to contain some examples of predictions --><ref name="Block_Thymologists" />

Revision as of 10:34, 14 December 2011

This page attempts to list various predictions made by Austrian economists about important economic and other developments. UNDER CONSTRUCTION.

Important note: Austrian economists, as Austrian economists, or praxeologists, do not predict. They can predict not as formal economists, or praxeologists, but, rather, in their role as thymologists, or economic historians. In praxeology, A causes B, other things remaining the same. But, in the real world, other things cannot be relied upon to always remain constant. Therefore, predictions of the "A will necessarily lead to B" type are strictly prohibited. Instead, praxeologists, but not thymologists, must limit themselves to statements of the if-A then-B variety.[1]

The Great Depression

The Great Depression was predicted by several Austrian economists:

  • In Austria, economist Ludwig von Mises saw the problem developing in its early stages and predicted to his colleagues in 1924 that the large Austrian bank, Credit Anstalt, would eventually crash. He wrote a full analysis of Irving Fisher’s monetary views, published in 1928, where he targeted Fisher’s reliance on price indexes as a key vulnerability that would bring about the Great Depression, concluding: "because of the imperfection of the index number, these calculations would necessarily lead in time to errors of very considerable proportions."
  • F. A. Hayek published several articles in early 1929 in which he predicted the collapse of the American boom. Felix Somary, who like Mises was a student at the University of Vienna, issued several dire warnings in the late 1920s, and in America economists Benjamin Anderson and E.C. Harwood also warned that the Federal Reserve policies would cause a crisis, and like Somary, they were largely ignored.[2]

Dot-com bubble

The Dot-com bubble and its bust was widely foreseen despite the hype:[3]

Anderson, 2000; Corrigan, 1999; Deden, 1999; Grant, 1996A, 1996B; Hülsmann, 2000; Mayer, 2000; Reisman, 1999; Sennholz, 2000; Shostak, 1999; Thornton, 2000.

  • Grant, James. 1996A. The Trouble with Prosperity, May
  • Hülsmann, Jörg G. 2000. Schöne neue Zeichengeldwelt


Housing bubble

During and after the burst of the Dot-com bubble, these economists predicted the 2000s housing bubble that culminated in the Great Recession from 2008 onward.

Anderson, 2001, 2003, 2007; Armentano, 2004; Beale, 2009; Blumen, 2002, 2004, 2005; Corrigan, 2002; Crovelli, 2006; DeCoster, 2003; DiLorenzo, 1999; Duffy, 2005A, 2005B, 2005C, 2005D, 2006, 2007A, 2007B, 2007C, 2007D; Economics of contempt, 2008; Englund, 2004, 2005A, 2005B, 2005C, 2005D, 2006, 2007, 2008; French, 2005; Grant, 2001; Karlsson, 2004; Mayer, 2003; Murphy, 2007, 2008; North, 2002, 2005; Paul, 2000, 2002; Polleit, 2006; Ptak, 2003; Rockwell, 2008; Rogers, 2005; Schiff, Undated A, Undated B, Undated C, Undated D, 2003A, 2003B, 2003C, 2004A, 2004B, 2005A, 2005B, 2005C, 2005D, 2006A, 2006B, 2006C, 2007A, 2007B; Sennholz, 2002; Shostak, 2003, 2005; Thornton, 2004A, 2004B, 2005, 2006; Trask, 2003; Wenzel, 2004; See also Woods (2009, p. 188 for further bibliography).

Anderson, William L. 2001. "The Party is Over," February 20

Anderson, William L. 2003. "Recovery or Boomlet?" July 07

Anderson, William L. 2007. "The Party is Over – Again," August 30

Armentano, Dominick. 2004. "Memo to Federal Reserve: Increase Interest Rates Now!"

Beale, Theodore. 2009. "The Return of the Great Depression"

Blumen, Robert. 2002. "Fannie Mae Distorts Markets." Mises Daily, June 17

Blumen, Robert. 2004. "All Real Estate, All the Time". March 8

Blumen, Robert. 2005. "Housing Bubble: Are We There Yet?" May 8

Corrigan, Sean. 2002. "The Trouble with Debt". July 01

Crovelli, Mark R. 2006. "Gold, Inflation, And... Austria?" May 31

De Coster, Karen. 2003. "The House that Greenspan Built: Irrationally Exuberant Wall Street Welfare Parasites and Their Fed-God." September 12

DiLorenzo, Thomas J. 1999. "Regulatory Sneak Attack." September 16

Duffy, Kevin. 2005A "The Super Bowl Indicator," February 5

Duffy, Kevin. 2005B. "Honey, I Shrunk the Net Worth," March 3

Duffy, Kevin. 2005C. "Alan, We Have a Problem," August 2

Duffy, Kevin. 2005D. "Panic Now and Beat the Rush," September 24

Duffy, Kevin. 2006. "Are Mortgage Borrowers Rational?" June 24

Duffy, Kevin. 2007A. "It’s a Mad, Mad, Mad, Mad World," May 22

Duffy, Kevin. 2007B. "For Whom Do the Bells Toll?" Barron’s, June 18

Duffy, Kevin. 2007C. "Financial Markets on Crack," August 22

Duffy, Kevin. 2007D. "Mr. Mozilo Goes to Washington," September 15

Economics of contempt. 2008. "The Unofficial List of Pundits/Experts Who Were Wrong on the Housing Bubble." July 16

Englund, Eric. 2004. "Monetizing Envy and America’s Housing Bubble". July 19

Englund, Eric. 2005A. "Houses Are Consumer Durables, Not Investments," June 8

Englund, Eric. 2005B. "Diminishing Property Rights Will Lead to a Higher Rate of Mortgage Defaults." June 28

Englund, Eric. 2005C. "When the Housing Bubble Bursts, Will President Bush Practice Mugabenomics?" July, 19

Englund, Eric. 2005D. "When Will America's Housing Bubble Burst?" November 4

Englund, Eric. 2006. "The Federal Reserve and Housing: A Cluster of Errors?" April 22

Englund, Eric. 2007. "From Prime to Subprime, America's Home-Mortgage Meltdown Has Just Begun." September 24

Englund, Eric. 2008. "Countrywide Financial Corporation and the Failure of Mortgage Socialism." January 28

French, Doug. 2005. "Condo-mania." July 11

Grant, James. 2001. "Sometimes the Economy Needs a Setback." New York Times. September 9

Karlsson, Stefan. 2004. "America's Unsustainable Boom." November 8

Mayer, Chris. 2003. "The Housing Bubble." The Free Market. Volume 23, Number 8 August

Murphy, Robert P. 2007 "The Fed’s Role in the Housing Bubble." December 28

Murphy, Robert P. 2008. "Did the Fed, or Asian Saving, Cause the Housing Bubble?" November 19

North, Gary. 2002. "How the FED Inflated the Real Estate Bubble by Pushing Down Mortgage Rates: Report As of 2002," Reality Check, March 4

North, Gary. 2005. "Surreal Estate on the San Andreas Fault." November 25, 2005

Paul, Ron. 2000. "A Republic, If You Can Keep It" January 31

Paul, Ron, 2002. "Testimony to U.S. House of Representatives", July 16

Polleit, Thorsten. 2006. "Sowing the Seeds of the Next Crisis." April 25

Ptak, Justin. 2003. "Government Employees, Go Home!" November 12

Rockwell, Llewellyn H, Jr. 2008. The Left, the Right, and the State. Auburn, AL: The Mises Institute, 2008

Rogers, Jim. 2005. "Interview with Jim Rogers on the housing bubble." April 22


Schiff, Peter. "Peter Schiff predictions" (video) Undated A.

Schiff, Peter. "Peter Schiff Was Right" (video). Undated B.

Schiff, Peter. "Peter Schiff was right 2006-2007 - CNBC edition" (video). Undated C.

Schiff, Peter. "Peter Schiff Was Right Again " (video). Undated D.

Schiff, Peter. 2003A. Commentary, March

Schiff, Peter. 2003B. Commentary, April

Schiff, Peter. 2003C. Commentary, June

Schiff, Peter. 2004A. Commentary, May

Schiff, Peter. 2004B. Commentary, June

Schiff, Peter. 2005A. Commentary, April

Schiff, Peter. 2005B. Commentary, July

Schiff, Peter. 2005C. Commentary, August

Schiff, Peter. 2005D. Commentary, October

Schiff, Peter. 2006A. Appearance on CNBC, January (video)

Schiff, Peter. 2006B. Speech to the Money Show Conference, February (video)

Schiff, Peter. 2006C. Speech to the Western Regional Mortgage Bankers Conference in Las Vegas November (video, transcript)

Schiff, Peter. 2007A. Crash Proof: How to Profit From the Coming Economic Collapse (1st edition) New York, N.Y.: Wiley, February 2007

Schiff, Peter. 2007B. Appearance on Fox News – January 12 (video)

Sennholz, Hans F. 2002. "The Fed is Culpable." November 11

Shostak, Frank. 2003. "Housing Bubble: Myth or Reality?" March 4

Shostak, Frank. 2005 "Is There a Glut of Saving?" August 4

Thornton, Mark. 2004A. "'Bull' Market?" February 9.

Thornton, Mark. 2004B. "Housing: too good to be true." June 4

Thornton, Mark. 2005. "Is the Housing Bubble Popping?" , August

Thornton, Mark. 2006. "The Economics of Housing Bubbles.", June

Trask, H.A. Scott. 2003. "Reflation in American History." October 31

Wenzel, Robert. 2004. "Government Isn't God: FDIC Sticks Banks With Bad Loans and Sticks Borrowers With Subprime Junk."

Woods, Thomas E. Jr. 2009. Meltdown: A Free-Market Look at Why the Stock Market Collapsed, the Economy Tanked, and Government Bailouts Will Make Things Worse. Washington D.C.: Regnery Publishing [1]

Other predictions

  • The Skyscraper index shows a correlation between the construction of the world's tallest buildings and impending financial crises. While not developed by Austrian economists, it is compatible with their views about the business cycle.[4]

References

  1. ↑ 1.0 1.1 Walter Block. Austrian Thymologists Who Predicted the Housing Bubble, LRC.com, December 22, 2010. Referenced 2011-11-29.
  2. ↑ Mark Thornton. "Mises vs. Fisher on Money, Method, and Prediction: The Case of the Great Depression" (pdf), p.13-15; December 2006. Referenced 2011-12-13.
  3. ↑ Mark Thornton. "Who Predicted the Bubble? Who Predicted the Crash?" (pdf), The Independent Review, v. IX, n. 1, Summer 2004, ISSN 1086-1653, Copyright © 2004, pp. 5–30. Referenced 2011-12-13.
  4. ↑ Mark Thornton. "Skyscrapers and Business Cycles", Mises Daily, August 23, 2008. Originally appeared in the Quarterly Journal of Austrian Economics vol. 8, no. 1 (Spring 2005) - PDF. There is also an MP3 audio file read by the author. Referenced 2011-12-13.

Links

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