Uncertainty - Revision history

Pesterbot: /* Links */External Links to Links, replaced: ==External links== → ==Links==

2011-06-21T19:26:53Z

Links: External Links to Links, replaced: ==External links== → ==Links==

← Older revision		Revision as of 19:26, 21 June 2011
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	{{Reflist}}		{{Reflist}}

	==~~External links~~==		==Links==
	* [[Wikipedia:Uncertainty\|Uncertainty]] on Wikipedia		* [[Wikipedia:Uncertainty\|Uncertainty]] on Wikipedia
	* [http://mises.org/story/2021 Uncertainty and Its Exigencies: The Critical Role of Insurance in the Free Market], a Mises Daily article by Hans-Hermann Hoppe		* [http://mises.org/story/2021 Uncertainty and Its Exigencies: The Critical Role of Insurance in the Free Market], a Mises Daily article by Hans-Hermann Hoppe

Forgottenman: /* External links */Category:Economical Concepts --> Category:Economic concepts using AWB

2010-11-09T18:02:55Z

External links: Category:Economical Concepts --> Category:Economic concepts using AWB

← Older revision		Revision as of 18:02, 9 November 2010
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	* [http://mises.org/journals/rae/pdf/RAE10_1_3.pdf On Certainty and Uncertainty, Or: How Rational Can Our Expectations Be?] (pdf), by Hans-Hermann Hoppe, Review of Austrian Economics 10, No. 1 (1997)		* [http://mises.org/journals/rae/pdf/RAE10_1_3.pdf On Certainty and Uncertainty, Or: How Rational Can Our Expectations Be?] (pdf), by Hans-Hermann Hoppe, Review of Austrian Economics 10, No. 1 (1997)
	* [http://mises.org/Books/timeuncertainty.pdf Time, Uncertainty, and Disequilibrium] (pdf), Exploration of Austrian Themes. Edited by Mario J. Rizzo New York University, LexingtonBooks		* [http://mises.org/Books/timeuncertainty.pdf Time, Uncertainty, and Disequilibrium] (pdf), Exploration of Austrian Themes. Edited by Mario J. Rizzo New York University, LexingtonBooks
	[[Category:~~Economical Concepts~~]]		[[Category:Economic concepts]]

Pestergaines: 9 revisions: Importing pages from Autrian Economics Wiki.

2010-11-06T12:42:58Z

9 revisions: Importing pages from Autrian Economics Wiki.

← Older revision	Revision as of 12:42, 6 November 2010
(No difference)

Pestergaines: /* Regime uncertainty */ Internalized link to Regime uncertainty.

2010-08-15T10:54:33Z

Regime uncertainty: Internalized link to Regime uncertainty.

← Older revision		Revision as of 10:54, 15 August 2010
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	==Regime uncertainty==		==Regime uncertainty==
	[[Wikipedia:Robert Higgs\|Higgs]] theorizes, that the New Deal prolonged the [[Great Depression]] by creating an extraordinarily high degree of '''regime uncertainty''' for the investors. Given the unparalleled number of business-threatening laws, regulations, and court decisions, the oft-stated hostility of President Roosevelt and his lieutenants toward investors as a class, the political climate could hardly have failed to discourage some investors from making fresh long-term commitments. There also exists a great deal of direct evidence that investors felt very uncertain about the future of the property-rights regime between 1935 and 1941. Historians have recorded many statements by contemporaries to that effect; in the years just before the war most business executives expected substantial weakening of private property rights.<ref name="Higgs_investment">Robert Higgs. [http://www.independent.org/pdf/tir/tir_01_4_higgs.pdf "Regime Uncertainty - Why the Great Depression Lasted So Long and Why Prosperity Resumed after the War"] (pdf), The Independent Review, Vol, I, No. 4, Spring 1997. Referenced 2010-07-31.</ref>		[[Wikipedia:Robert Higgs\|Higgs]] theorizes, that the New Deal prolonged the [[Great Depression]] by creating an extraordinarily high degree of '''[[regime uncertainty]]''' for the investors. Given the unparalleled number of business-threatening laws, regulations, and court decisions, the oft-stated hostility of President Roosevelt and his lieutenants toward investors as a class, the political climate could hardly have failed to discourage some investors from making fresh long-term commitments. There also exists a great deal of direct evidence that investors felt very uncertain about the future of the property-rights regime between 1935 and 1941. Historians have recorded many statements by contemporaries to that effect; in the years just before the war most business executives expected substantial weakening of private property rights.<ref name="Higgs_investment">Robert Higgs. [http://www.independent.org/pdf/tir/tir_01_4_higgs.pdf "Regime Uncertainty - Why the Great Depression Lasted So Long and Why Prosperity Resumed after the War"] (pdf), The Independent Review, Vol, I, No. 4, Spring 1997. Referenced 2010-07-31.</ref>

	==References==		==References==

Pestergaines: Regime uncertainty.

2010-07-31T08:46:17Z

Regime uncertainty.

← Older revision		Revision as of 08:46, 31 July 2010
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	==Science and uncertainty==		==Science and uncertainty==
	Natural science does not make the future predictable. It makes it possible to foretell the results of definite actions. But it leaves unpredictable two spheres: that of insufficiently known natural phenomena and that of human acts of choice. Our ignorance with regard to these two spheres taints all human actions with uncertainty.<ref name="Mises_Uncertainty" />		Natural science does not make the future predictable. It makes it possible to foretell the results of definite actions. But it leaves unpredictable two spheres: that of insufficiently known natural phenomena and that of human acts of choice. Our ignorance with regard to these two spheres taints all human actions with uncertainty.<ref name="Mises_Uncertainty" />

			==Regime uncertainty==
			[[Wikipedia:Robert Higgs\|Higgs]] theorizes, that the New Deal prolonged the [[Great Depression]] by creating an extraordinarily high degree of '''regime uncertainty''' for the investors. Given the unparalleled number of business-threatening laws, regulations, and court decisions, the oft-stated hostility of President Roosevelt and his lieutenants toward investors as a class, the political climate could hardly have failed to discourage some investors from making fresh long-term commitments. There also exists a great deal of direct evidence that investors felt very uncertain about the future of the property-rights regime between 1935 and 1941. Historians have recorded many statements by contemporaries to that effect; in the years just before the war most business executives expected substantial weakening of private property rights.<ref name="Higgs_investment">Robert Higgs. [http://www.independent.org/pdf/tir/tir_01_4_higgs.pdf "Regime Uncertainty - Why the Great Depression Lasted So Long and Why Prosperity Resumed after the War"] (pdf), The Independent Review, Vol, I, No. 4, Spring 1997. Referenced 2010-07-31.</ref>

	==References==		==References==

Pestergaines: Link to probability.

2009-10-24T10:25:20Z

Link to probability.

← Older revision		Revision as of 10:25, 24 October 2009
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	'''Case probability''' means, that we know some of the factors which determine the outcome of a particular event; but there are other determining factors which we don't know. The cases are individual, unique, and nonrepeatable, their result is '''uncertain'''. If in roulette a ball falls ten times on red in succession, the probability, that in the next turn will be the result black, is not greater than it was before. Football games cannot be predicted on the results of last games, nor can be presidential elections.<ref name="Mises_Case_Probability">[[Ludwig von Mises]]. [http://mises.org/humanaction/chap6sec4.asp "4. Case Probability"], [[Human Action]], online version, referenced 2009-10-10.</ref>		'''Case probability''' means, that we know some of the factors which determine the outcome of a particular event; but there are other determining factors which we don't know. The cases are individual, unique, and nonrepeatable, their result is '''uncertain'''. If in roulette a ball falls ten times on red in succession, the probability, that in the next turn will be the result black, is not greater than it was before. Football games cannot be predicted on the results of last games, nor can be presidential elections.<ref name="Mises_Case_Probability">[[Ludwig von Mises]]. [http://mises.org/humanaction/chap6sec4.asp "4. Case Probability"], [[Human Action]], online version, referenced 2009-10-10.</ref>

			{{Main\|Probability}}

	==Protection==		==Protection==

Pestergaines: /* External links */

2009-10-22T22:07:30Z

External links

← Older revision		Revision as of 22:07, 22 October 2009
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	==External links==		==External links==
	* [[Wikipedia:Uncertainty\|Uncertainty]] on Wikipedia		* [[Wikipedia:Uncertainty\|Uncertainty]] on Wikipedia
	* [http://mises.org/story/2021 Uncertainty and Its Exigencies: The Critical Role of Insurance in the Free Market], article by Hans-Hermann Hoppe		* [http://mises.org/story/2021 Uncertainty and Its Exigencies: The Critical Role of Insurance in the Free Market], a Mises Daily article by Hans-Hermann Hoppe
	* [http://mises.org/journals/rae/pdf/RAE10_1_3.pdf On Certainty and Uncertainty, Or: How Rational Can Our Expectations Be?] (pdf), by Hans-Hermann Hoppe, Review of Austrian Economics 10, No. 1 (1997)		* [http://mises.org/journals/rae/pdf/RAE10_1_3.pdf On Certainty and Uncertainty, Or: How Rational Can Our Expectations Be?] (pdf), by Hans-Hermann Hoppe, Review of Austrian Economics 10, No. 1 (1997)
	* [http://mises.org/Books/timeuncertainty.pdf Time, Uncertainty, and Disequilibrium] (pdf), Exploration of Austrian Themes. Edited by Mario J. Rizzo New York University, LexingtonBooks		* [http://mises.org/Books/timeuncertainty.pdf Time, Uncertainty, and Disequilibrium] (pdf), Exploration of Austrian Themes. Edited by Mario J. Rizzo New York University, LexingtonBooks
	[[Category:Economical Concepts]]		[[Category:Economical Concepts]]

Pestergaines at 21:44, 22 October 2009

2009-10-22T21:44:02Z

← Older revision		Revision as of 21:44, 22 October 2009
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	* [[Wikipedia:Uncertainty\|Uncertainty]] on Wikipedia		* [[Wikipedia:Uncertainty\|Uncertainty]] on Wikipedia
	* [http://mises.org/story/2021 Uncertainty and Its Exigencies: The Critical Role of Insurance in the Free Market], article by Hans-Hermann Hoppe		* [http://mises.org/story/2021 Uncertainty and Its Exigencies: The Critical Role of Insurance in the Free Market], article by Hans-Hermann Hoppe
	* [http://mises.org/journals/rae/pdf/RAE10_1_3.pdf On Certainty and Uncertainty, Or: How Rational Can Our Expectations Be?], by Hans-Hermann Hoppe, Review of Austrian Economics 10, No. 1 (1997)		* [http://mises.org/journals/rae/pdf/RAE10_1_3.pdf On Certainty and Uncertainty, Or: How Rational Can Our Expectations Be?] (pdf), by Hans-Hermann Hoppe, Review of Austrian Economics 10, No. 1 (1997)
	* [http://mises.org/Books/timeuncertainty.pdf Time, Uncertainty, and Disequilibrium], Exploration of Austrian Themes. Edited by Mario J. Rizzo New York University, LexingtonBooks		* [http://mises.org/Books/timeuncertainty.pdf Time, Uncertainty, and Disequilibrium] (pdf), Exploration of Austrian Themes. Edited by Mario J. Rizzo New York University, LexingtonBooks
	[[Category:Economical Concepts]]		[[Category:Economical Concepts]]

Pestergaines: Added external links.

2009-10-22T21:06:16Z

Added external links.

← Older revision		Revision as of 21:06, 22 October 2009
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	==References==		==References==
	{{Reflist}}		{{Reflist}}

			==External links==
			* [[Wikipedia:Uncertainty\|Uncertainty]] on Wikipedia
			* [http://mises.org/story/2021 Uncertainty and Its Exigencies: The Critical Role of Insurance in the Free Market], article by Hans-Hermann Hoppe
			* [http://mises.org/journals/rae/pdf/RAE10_1_3.pdf On Certainty and Uncertainty, Or: How Rational Can Our Expectations Be?], by Hans-Hermann Hoppe, Review of Austrian Economics 10, No. 1 (1997)
			* [http://mises.org/Books/timeuncertainty.pdf Time, Uncertainty, and Disequilibrium], Exploration of Austrian Themes. Edited by Mario J. Rizzo New York University, LexingtonBooks
	[[Category:Economical Concepts]]		[[Category:Economical Concepts]]

Pestergaines: Minor edits of Protection and a reference.

2009-10-22T20:52:14Z

Minor edits of Protection and a reference.

← Older revision		Revision as of 20:52, 22 October 2009
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	==Protection==		==Protection==
	Life is exposed to many risks, accidents and disasters, than cannot be controlled. Man can remove some of their consequences by buying or producing insurance (~~it can be actual~~ insurance~~, or investment in~~ specific goods - like a fire extinguisher against the threat of fire).		Life is exposed to many risks, accidents and disasters, than cannot be controlled. Man can remove some of their consequences by buying or producing insurance (ranging from financial insurance to the procurement of specific goods - like a fire extinguisher against the threat of fire).

	But when man faces ''uncertainty'', it is not known what will be wanted or needed and when. Only present, instantly serviceable goods can protect against unpredictable events at unpredictable moments. And [[money]], because of its instant and unspecific wide-ranging salability, can protect against uncertainty. Thus, just as insurance premiums are the price paid for protection against risk aversion, cash holdings are the price paid for protection against uncertainty aversion.<ref name="Hoppe_Yield">Hans-Hermann Hoppe. [http://mises.org/story/3449 "The Yield from Money Held" Reconsidered], Mises Daily, posted on 2009-05-14, referenced 2009-10-10.</ref>		But when man faces ''uncertainty'', it is not known what will be wanted or needed and when. Only present, instantly serviceable goods can protect against unpredictable events at unpredictable moments. And [[money]], because of its instant and unspecific wide-ranging salability, can protect against uncertainty. Thus, just as insurance premiums are the price paid for protection against risk aversion, cash holdings are the price paid for protection against uncertainty aversion.<ref name="Hoppe_Yield">Hans-Hermann Hoppe. [http://mises.org/story/3449 "The Yield from Money Held" Reconsidered], Mises Daily, posted on 2009-05-14, referenced 2009-10-10.</ref>

	==Science and uncertainty==		==Science and uncertainty==
	Natural science does not make the future predictable. It makes it possible to foretell the results of definite actions. But it leaves unpredictable two spheres: that of insufficiently known natural phenomena and that of human acts of choice. Our ignorance with regard to these two spheres taints all human actions with uncertainty.		Natural science does not make the future predictable. It makes it possible to foretell the results of definite actions. But it leaves unpredictable two spheres: that of insufficiently known natural phenomena and that of human acts of choice. Our ignorance with regard to these two spheres taints all human actions with uncertainty.<ref name="Mises_Uncertainty" />

	==References==		==References==
	{{Reflist}}		{{Reflist}}
	[[Category:Economical Concepts]]		[[Category:Economical Concepts]]