Republican Party presidential primaries, 2012

2012-05-08T22:54:29Z

Helmuth hubener: /* Table of Results/Projections */

The 2012 race to become the [[Republican Party (United States)|Republican Party]] nominee for [[President of the United States]] featured libertarian Congressman [[Ron Paul]]. Paul's anti-war, anti-Fed, pro-civil liberties views contrasted with the positions of the other candidates: Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich, Rick Perry, Herman Cain, Michele Bachmann and Jon Huntsman. By April 2012, all candidates except Paul and Romney had withdrawn from the race.

==Popular Vote==

As of 2 May, Romney leads with 39.7%, followed by Santorum (27.8%), Gingrich (19.9%), and Paul (10.3%). There have been allegations of election fraud and voter fraud.

===Algorithmic Vote Flipping===

There is evidence that some vote counts were flipped to manipulate the results of the popular votes. The manipulation is all in favor of Romney, and mostly at the expense of Paul.

[https://docs.google.com/file/d/0ByJAC-sfXwumZzI2bVlON2VTMnFyYVZZSnpDYnNyQQ/edit?pli=1 Evidence of Algorithmic Vote Flipping in GOP Primary Elections]

==Delegate Selection==

The mainstream media are not projecting many delegates for Ron Paul at the Republic National Convention. For example, CNN projected 9 for Ron Paul from Minnesota, but he has won 20 of the first 24 delegates assigned in that state. Paul's strategy and superior grassroots organization enable him to pick up delegates out of proportion to the popular vote. For example, in Louisiana he won 6% of the popular vote, but has secured at least 17 of the 46 delegates from that state.

===Table of Results/Projections===

There are reports from the ground that claim that Ron Paul has won, or is likely to win, considerably more delegates than the projections indicate. This table is an attempt to bring together these reports to give a more accurate picture of how many delegates Paul is winning or likely to win.

{| class="wikitable" style="font-size:12px;"
|- bgcolor="#e9e9e9"
! colspan="1" style="padding:4px;"|State
! colspan="5" style="padding:4px;"|RNC Delegates
! colspan="3" style="padding:4px;"|To Be Assigned Later
! colspan="1" style="padding:4px;"|Total Delegates
! colspan="1" style="padding:4px;"|State Convention
! colspan="1" style="padding:4px;"|Notes / Projections / References
|- bgcolor="#eeeeee"
! rowspan="2" style="width:100px;"|
! rowspan="2" style="width:50px;"| Paul
! rowspan="2" style="width:50px;"| Romney
! rowspan="2" style="width:50px;"| Santorum
! rowspan="2" style="width:50px;"| Gingrich
! rowspan="2" style="width:50px;"| Uncommitted
! rowspan="2" style="width:50px;"| State Convention To Decide
! rowspan="2" style="width:50px;"| Congressional District Caucus To Decide
! rowspan="2" style="width:50px;"| Automatic (RNC) Delegates
! rowspan="2" style="width:20px;"|
! rowspan="2" style="width:150px;"|
|- bgcolor="#eeeeee"
!
|- style="text-align:right;"
| align="left"| Iowa
| >13
|
|
|
|
| 13
| 12
| 3
| 28
| 16 June
| "RP will not get less than half" <ref>[http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/332617/20120424/ron-paul-2012-delegates-news-iowa-minnesota.htm Ron Paul 2012 Wins Iowa & Minnesota Delegates, Demonstrating Possible Path to White House]</ref><ref>[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=347BJLhZkE4 Reality Check 5:32 "Those 13 slots are Ron Paul delegates"]</ref>

|- style="text-align:right;"
| align="left"| New Hampshire
|bgcolor="pink"| 3
|bgcolor="pink"| 7
|bgcolor="pink"| 0
|bgcolor="pink"| 0
|bgcolor="pink"| 2 (JH)
|
|
|
| 12*
|
| *20 delegates were assigned, but only 12 slots available, so this has been factored down<ref>[http://www.sos.nh.gov/presprim2012/Delegates/2012%20Delegates%20&%20Alternates.pdf NH Delegates Names List]</ref> It is not clear whether these delegates are bound.

|- style="text-align:right;"
| align="left"| South Carolina
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 25
| 19 May
| Winner-takes-all at the Congressional District level. Each congressional district delegate ... shall be bound during the first ballot .... However, if the candidate to which a delegate is bound falls below 30% of the vote on the first ballot, that delegate automatically is released before the second ballot<ref>[http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/SC-R South Carolina at The Green Papers]</ref>

|- style="text-align:right;"
| align="left"| Florida
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 50
|
| Dispute over whether delegates are to be assigned winner-takes-all or proportionally.

|- style="text-align:right;"
| align="left"| Nevada
|bgcolor="pink"| 22
|bgcolor="pink"| 6
|bgcolor="pink"| 0
|bgcolor="pink"| 0
|bgcolor="pink"| 0
|
|
|
| 28
| 5-6 May
| <ref>[http://www.bostonherald.com/news/us_politics/view/20120506ron_paul_wins_majority_of_delegates_from_maine_gop/ Ron Paul wins majority of delegates from Maine GOP]</ref><ref>[http://www.dailypaul.com/231333/breaking-the-patriots-of-nevada-deliver-ron-paul-delegates-win-25-of-28-seats-to-republican-national-convention Breaking! The Patriots of Nevada Deliver. Ron Paul delegates Win 25 of 28 Seats to Republican National Convention!]</ref>

|- style="text-align:right;"
| align="left"| Colorado
|bgcolor="pink"| 2 (+13)
|bgcolor="pink"| 14
|bgcolor="pink"| 6 (+1)
|bgcolor="pink"| 0
|bgcolor="pink"| 0
|
|
|
| 36
| 14 April
| <ref>[http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/CO-R Green Papers Colorado]</ref> "13 unpledged delegates, including me, will vote for Ron Paul. 1 for Santorum." <ref>[http://communities.washingtontimes.com/neighborhood/reawakening-liberty/2012/apr/15/colorado-further-evidence-ron-paul-will-challenge-/ Colorado further evidence Ron Paul will challenge Romney in Tampa]</ref>

|- align="right"
| align="left"| Minnesota
|bgcolor="pink"| 20 (+14)
|bgcolor="pink"| 1 (+2)
|bgcolor="pink"| 2
|bgcolor="pink"| 0
|bgcolor="pink"| 1
| 13 (13 RP)<ref>[http://www.dailypaul.com/comment/2426020 "I'm a delegate from MN... I believe it is entirely possible that all 13 could go to Dr. Paul!"]</ref>
| 0
| 3 (1 RP, 2MR)<ref>[http://www.dailypaul.com/230337/actual-delegate-count-at-mises-wiki "I'm a delegate from MN... 1 of our RNC delegates is a confirmed Dr. Paul supporter"]</ref>
| 40
| 18-19 May
| <ref>[http://www.slate.com/blogs/weigel/2012/04/23/ron_paul_wins_minnesota_delegates_by_a_landslide.html Ron Paul Wins Minnesota Delegates by a Landslide]</ref><ref>[http://www.piercecountyherald.com/event/article/id/44707/ Rep. Paul supporters elected to half of Minnesota GOP convention delegation]</ref>No Delegate to the Republican National Convention shall be bound by party rules or by state law to cast his/her vote for a particular candidate on any ballot at the convention except that the state convention may bind the Delegates whom it elects to the National Convention of the Republican Party on the first ballot to vote for a candidate for the office of President of the United States, unless they be released by said candidate.<ref>[http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/MN-R Minnesota at The Green Papers]</ref>

|- style="text-align:right;"
| align="left"| Missouri
|bgcolor="pink"| 4
|bgcolor="pink"| 12
|bgcolor="pink"| 7
|bgcolor="pink"| 1
|bgcolor="pink"| 0
| 25
| 0
| 3
| 52
| 2 June
| "Paul took 20 of the 40 delegates awarded"<ref>[http://articles.businessinsider.com/2012-04-27/politics/31419425_1_romney-delegates-delegate-total-ron-paul Actually, Ron Paul Is Secretly Winning A Lot More Delegates Than You Think]</ref><ref>[http://www.mogop.org/2012/04/6241/ MOGOP releases unofficial results of the Congressional District Conventions]</ref>National Convention delegates are bound on the first ballot unless released by the candidate.<ref>[http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/MO-R Missouri at The Green Papers]</ref>

|- style="text-align:right;"
| align="left"| Maine
| 21
| 0
| 0
| 0
| 0
| 15
| 6
| 3
| 24
| 5-6 May
| "RP could well sweep all 24" <ref>[http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/election-2012/post/maine-caucuses-provide-a-window-into-ron-paul-delegate-strategy/2012/02/12/gIQARNbC9Q_blog.html Maine caucuses provide a window into Ron Paul delegate strategy]</ref>

|- style="text-align:right;"
| align="left"| Arizona
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 29
| 12 May
| Winner-takes-all at the Congressional District level. Each delegate to the national convention shall use his best efforts at the convention for the party's presidential nominee candidate who received the greatest number of votes in the presidential preference election ... until the candidate releases the delegate ... withdraws from the race or until one convention nominating ballot ....<ref>[http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/AZ-R Arizona at The Green Papers]</ref>

|- style="text-align:right;"
| align="left"| Michigan
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 30
| 18-19 May
| Delegates are bound to their Presidential preference from the start of the nominating process through the end of the first ballot at the Republican National Convention. Delegates may not amend their Preference unless released from that commitment.<ref>[http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/MI-R Michigan at The Green Papers]</ref>

|- style="text-align:right;"
| align="left"| Wyoming
|bgcolor="pink"| 1
|bgcolor="pink"| 22
|bgcolor="pink"| 2
|bgcolor="pink"| 0
|bgcolor="pink"| 4
|
|
|
| 29
| 12-14 April
| <ref>[http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/WY-R Wyoming at Green Papers]</ref>

|- style="text-align:right;"
| align="left"| Washington
| >21
|
|
|
|
| 10
| 30
| 3
| 43
| 30 May - 2 June
| "RP has locked up at least half"<ref>[http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/333906/20120426/ron-paul-2012-delegates-news-romney-convention.htm Ron Paul 2012 Wins Majority Of Washington Delegates To Convention, Other States Expected To Follow]</ref>

|- style="text-align:right;"
| align="left"| Alaska
|bgcolor="pink"| 6
|bgcolor="pink"| 8
|bgcolor="pink"| 8
|bgcolor="pink"| 2
|bgcolor="pink"| 3
|
|
|
| 27
| 26-28 April
| After the second round of balloting ... if the Candidate to which the Delegate is pledged is the candidate receiving the fewest number of votes ..., the Delegate is no longer required to support that candidate. If a ... delegate ... pledged to a ... Presidential Candidate who is no longer a candidate for the Republican Nomination for President as of the date of the National Convention, that delegate ... shall be deemed non-pledged.<ref>[http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/AK-R Alaska at The Green Papers]</ref><ref>[http://www.politico.com/blogs/charlie-mahtesian/2012/04/ron-pauls-alaska-payback-121953.html Ron Paul's Alaska payback] "A Paul supporter was voted in as the new GOP chairman Saturday at the state convention"</ref><ref>[http://www.kansascity.com/2012/04/30/3583855/ron-pauls-supporters-stir-up-alaska.html Ron Paul's supporters stir up Alaska GOP convention]</ref>

|- style="text-align:right;"
| align="left"| Georgia
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 76
| 18-19 May
|

|- style="text-align:right;"
| align="left"| Idaho
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 32
| 21-23 June
| Delegates shall be obliged on the first ballot to vote for the candidate who nominated them. Delegates committed to a withdrawn candidate become uncommitted.<ref>[http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/ID-R Idaho at The Green Papers]</ref>

|- style="text-align:right;"
| align="left"| Massachussets
|bgcolor="pink"| 16 (*)
|bgcolor="pink"| 11
|bgcolor="pink"| 0
|bgcolor="pink"| 0
|bgcolor="pink"| 0
| 11 (**)
| 0
| 3
| 41
| 15 June
| "Less than half of Romney’s 27 chosen delegates won"<ref>[http://articles.boston.com/2012-04-30/metro/31478610_1_romney-slate-mitt-romney-massachusetts-governor State GOP’s caucus picks leave Romney slate slighted]</ref> 
'''*''' All delegates bound to Romney on 1st ballot. Reports indicate that 16 delegates support Paul, 10 support Romney, and 1 is unknown<ref>[http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/MA-R Massachussets at The Green Papers]</ref> 
'''**''' Selected by MA Republican State Committee

|- style="text-align:right;"
| align="left"| North Dakota
|bgcolor="pink"| 2
|bgcolor="pink"| 20
|bgcolor="pink"| 6
|bgcolor="pink"| 0
|bgcolor="pink"| 0
|
|
|
| 28
| 1 April
| Apportionment on the first ballot shall be strictly voluntary. The delegates remain free to vote their conscience on all balloting.<ref>[http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/ND-R The Green Papers North Dakota Republican]</ref>

|- style="text-align:right;"
| align="left"| Ohio
|bgcolor="pink"| 0
|bgcolor="pink"| 38
|bgcolor="pink"| 25
|bgcolor="pink"| 0
|bgcolor="pink"| 3
|
|
|
| 66
|
| These delegates are morally but not legally bound to any candidate.<ref>[http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/OH-R Ohio at The Green Papers]</ref>

|- style="text-align:right;"
| align="left"| Oklahoma
|
|
|
|
|
| 25
| 15
| 3
| 43
| 11-12 May
| Delegates are bound until released. If that candidate withdraws, delegates vote for any candidate of their choice.<ref>[http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/OK-R Oklahoma at The Green Papers]</ref> It is unclear who was chosen as delegates at the CDC on 14 April.<ref>[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Swgk1iGL9Fc Video of Oklahoma District Convention]</ref>

|- style="text-align:right;"
| align="left"| Tennessee
|bgcolor="pink"| 0
|bgcolor="pink"| 17
|bgcolor="pink"| 29
|bgcolor="pink"| 9
|bgcolor="pink"| 3
|
|
|
| 58
|
| At the National Convention, delegates are bound for at least 2 ballots.

|- style="text-align:right;"
| align="left"| Vermont
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 17
| 19 May
| Delegates ... to the Republican National Convention shall be bound in the first ballot .... Delegates ... shall be released if their candidate is not placed into nomination ... or officially withdraws.<ref>[http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/VT-R Vermont at The Green Papers]</ref>

|- style="text-align:right;"
| align="left"| Virginia
|
|
|
|
|
| 13
| 33
| 3
| 49
| 28 Apr-19 May (CDC) / 16 June (SC)
|

|- style="text-align:right;"
| align="left"| Kansas
|bgcolor="pink"| 0
|bgcolor="pink"| 7
|bgcolor="pink"| 33
|bgcolor="pink"| 0
|bgcolor="pink"| 0
|
|
|
| 40
| 28 April
| <ref>[http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/KS-R Kansas at The Green Papers]</ref>

|- style="text-align:right;"
| align="left"| Northern Mariana Islands
|bgcolor="pink"| 0
|bgcolor="pink"| 9
|bgcolor="pink"| 0
|bgcolor="pink"| 0
|bgcolor="pink"| 0
|
|
|
| 9
|
| All of the Commonwealth's National Convention delegates attend the convention as unpledged delegates.<ref>[http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/MP-R Northern Mariana Islands at The Green Papers]</ref>

|- style="text-align:right;"
| align="left"| US Virgin Islands
|bgcolor="pink"| 1
|bgcolor="pink"| 3
|bgcolor="pink"| 0
|bgcolor="pink"| 0
|bgcolor="pink"| 5
|
|
|
| 9
|
| Candidates that declare as being pledged shall ... have promised, if elected, to vote for such declared candidate for the Republican nomination for President of the United States on the first ballot.<ref>http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/VI-R US Virgin Islands at The Green Papers]</ref>

|- style="text-align:right;"
| align="left"| Guam
|bgcolor="pink"| 0
|bgcolor="pink"| 9
|bgcolor="pink"| 0
|bgcolor="pink"| 0
|bgcolor="pink"| 0
|
|
|
| 9
|
| With 207 of the 215 registered Republicans in Guam present, Romney won with a unanimous show of hands. While Guam's 9 delegates are technically unpledged they are all Romney supporters.<ref>[http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/GU-R Guam at The Green Papers]</ref>

|- style="text-align:right;"
| align="left"| Alabama
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 50
|
|

|- style="text-align:right;"
| align="left"| Hawaii
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 20
|
| Delegates bound on the first ballot.<ref>[http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/HI-R Hawaii at The Green Papers]</ref>

|- style="text-align:right;"
| align="left"| Mississippi
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 40
| 18-19 May
|

|- style="text-align:right;"
| align="left"| American Samoa
|bgcolor="pink"| 0
|bgcolor="pink"| 9
|bgcolor="pink"| 0
|bgcolor="pink"| 0
|bgcolor="pink"| 0
|
|
|
| 9
|
| Delegates are unbound.<ref>[http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/AS-R American Samoa at The Green Papers]</ref>

|- style="text-align:right;"
| align="left"| Puerto Rico
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 23
|
|

|- style="text-align:right;"
| align="left"| Illinois
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 69
| 8-9 June
|

|- style="text-align:right;"
| align="left"| Louisiana
| >17
|
|
|
|
| 46
|
|
| 46
| 2 June
| "Paul is guaranteed at least 17 of the 46 delegates to the convention" "111 of the 150 (74%) delegates and 61 of the 72(85%) alternates elected to the State Convention appear to be supporters of Ron Paul"<ref>[http://www.nola.com/politics/index.ssf/2012/04/ron_paul_supporters_dominate_l.html Ron Paul supporters dominate Louisiana's Republican presidential caucuses]</ref>

|- style="text-align:right;"
| align="left"| Maryland
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 37
| 27-28 April
| The delegates are bound for the first 2 ballots.<ref>[http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/MD-R Maryland at The Green Papers]</ref>

|- style="text-align:right;"
| align="left"| District of Columbia
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 19
|
| 16 delegates are BOUND, the 3 RNC delegates are NOT BOUND

|- style="text-align:right;"
| align="left"| Wisconsin
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 42
|
|

|- style="text-align:right;"
| align="left"| Connecticut
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 28
| 18 May
|

|- style="text-align:right;"
| align="left"| Delaware
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 17
| 28 April
|

|- style="text-align:right;"
| align="left"| New York
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 95
| 22-23 May
|

|- style="text-align:right;"
| align="left"| Pennsylvania
| 5
|
|
|
|
| 10
| 59
| 3
| 72
| 10 June
| <ref>[http://articles.businessinsider.com/2012-04-27/politics/31419425_1_romney-delegates-delegate-total-ron-paul Actually, Ron Paul Is Secretly Winning A Lot More Delegates Than You Think]</ref>

|- style="text-align:right;"
| align="left"| Rhode Island
| 4
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 19
|
| <ref>[http://articles.businessinsider.com/2012-04-27/politics/31419425_1_romney-delegates-delegate-total-ron-paul Actually, Ron Paul Is Secretly Winning A Lot More Delegates Than You Think]</ref>

|- style="text-align:right;"
| align="left"|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|

|}

Note: pink denotes a relatively high level of confidence in the projection, but even these are technically "unpledged" in many cases.

==Summary of Delegate Count So Far==

===Early States===

Between them, these 13 states send 426 delegates to RNC. Here is a breakdown as of 7 May:

--- 5 states (NH,NV,CO,ME,WY) (129 delegates) have finished assigning delegates. Delegate count: Paul 65, Romney 46, Other 18.

--- 2 states (MN,MO) (92 delegates) have assigned some delegates. Delegate count: Paul 24, Romney 13, Other 14. The remaining 41 are assigned later: 19 May in MN, 2 June in MO.

--- 2 states (IA,WA) (71 delegates) have yet to assign any delegates, but RP is expected to take majorities in IA (14+) on 16 June and WA (22+) on 2 June.

--- 3 states (SC,AZ,MI) (84 delegates) have yet to assign any delegates and all do so by 19 May.

--- 1 state (FL) (50 delegates) has yet to assign delegates and it is not clear when this will happen.

===Super Tuesday States===

Between them, these 10 states send 437 delegates to the RNC. Here is a breakdown as of 7 May:

--- 4 states (AK,ND,OH,TN) (179 delegates) have assigned all their delegates. Delegate count: Paul 8, Romney 83, Other 88. Delegates in AK and TN are bound on the first ballot, but in ND delegates are “free to vote with their conscience” and in OH delegates are “morally but not legally bound” on the first ballot.

--- 1 state (MA) (41 delegates) has bound all its delegates to vote for Romney on the first ballot. 27 delegates have been selected so far. 16 of these will vote for Paul on subsequent ballots and may abstain from the first ballot.

--- 5 states (GA,ID,OK,VT,VA) (217 delegates) have yet to assign delegates. All do so in May or June.

===March States / Territories===

Between them these 7 states and 4 territories send 324 delegates to the RNC. Here is a breakdown as of 7 May:

--- 1 state (KS) (40 delegates) has already had its state convention. Delegate count: Paul 0, Romney 7, Other 33.

--- 3 states (AL,HI,PR) (93 delegates) and 4 territories (NMI,VI,GU,AS) (36 delegates) have no state convention date.

--- 3 states (MS,IL,LA) have state convention dates: 19 May in MS, 9 June in IL, 2 June in LA. Paul is guaranteed 17 from LA, and may get all 46.

===April States / District===

Between them, these 7 states and 1 district send 329 delegates to the RNC. Here is a breakdown as of 7 May:

--- 2 states (MD,DE) (54 delegates) have already had their state convention. Delegate count: Paul 0, Romney 54, Other 0.

--- 2 states (WI,RI) and 1 district (DC) (80 delegates) have no state convention date.

--- 3 states (CT,NY,PA) (195 delegates) have state convention dates: 18 May in CT, 23 May in NY, 10 June in PA.

===Actual Delegate Count===

Actual delegate count (12 full states, 2 partial states): '''Paul 97 (21%), Romney 203 (45%), Other 153 (34%)'''.

States won (12 full states): '''Paul 3, Romney 7, Other 2'''.

Note: Depending on how [http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mDPK4GCprYA RNC Rule 38] is interpreted, states may not be allowed to bind their candidates even on the first ballot. Even if they are bound, these delegates may be able to abstain on the first ballot, after which they are unbound.

==References==

<references/>

[[Category:Issues]]

The Austrian Economics Wiki - User contributions [en]

Republican Party presidential primaries, 2012